ZHAO Yalan,KUANG Yaoqiu,HUANG Ningsheng.Decomposition Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission in Hong Kong, China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):252-259.
香港温室气体排放及驱动因素分析
- Title:
- Decomposition Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission in Hong Kong, China
- Keywords:
- greenhouse gas emissions; LMDI; decoupling model; Hong Kong
- 分类号:
- X24
- 摘要:
- 研究并总结香港温室气体排放特征和气候行动的有益经验，可为全国其他地区的减排行动提供科学依据。利用脱钩指数和LMDI因素分解模型分析了1992-2015年香港温室气体排放变化特征、结构特征和主要影响因素。结果表明：（1）研究期内香港温室气体排放和能源消费已初步实现达峰，峰值均出现在2014年；2015年碳强度比2005年降低了40.82%，已实现2030年目标；（2）香港碳排放与经济发展为非常理想的强脱钩状态；（3）能源消费碳排放对香港碳排放总量起的是减排作用，非能源消费碳排放起的是增排作用；能源强度、能源消费碳排放系数和碳强度这3个驱动因素的累积影响对香港起了积极的减排作用，能源强度因素贡献最大；人均GDP、人口、能源结构和碳排放结构因素的累积影响对香港一直起增排作用，人均GDP和人口因素的累积增排贡献最大，高耗能的发电行业能源消费比例和碳排放比例居高不下是能源结构和碳排放结构因素起增排作用的重要原因。清洁发电、节约用电是未来香港气候行动的工作重点。
- Abstract:
- To research Hong Kong’s greenhouse gas emissions and climate actions is the good ways to summary scientific basis for reducing emissions in other areas of China. We used the decoupling index and the LMDI model to analyze the characteristics, structural characteristics and main influencing factors of greenhouse gas emissions in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2015. The results showed that:(1) the greenhouse gas emission in Hong Kong had reached the peak in the research period and the peak appeared in 2014; the carbon intensity in 2015 was 40.82% lower than that in 2005 which had achieved its goal of 2030; (2) Hong Kong’s carbon emissions and economic development were strong decoupling; (3) carbon emissions from energy consumption contributed the reductive effect to Hong Kong, not energy-related emissions contributed the cumulative effect; among all driving forces, energy intensity, energy-related carbon emission coefficient and carbon intensity had contributed to the reduction of Hong Kong, other factors played the negative roles in reducing carbon emissions in Hong Kong. Cleaner electricity industry and use of less electricity will be the main tasks for Hong Kong’s climate action in the future.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-4-2;改回日期:2018-4-25。
基金项目:广东省省级科技计划项目（2016A020228009）；广东省生态文明协同创新重点研究基地项目"广东污染产业的空间分布及变迁研究"
作者简介:赵亚兰(1992-),女,江西南昌人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为区域人口、资源、环境和可持续发展。E-mail:zhaoyalan13@qq.com
通讯作者:匡耀求(1963-),男,湖南双峰人,理学博士,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事地球系统科学与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:yaoqiuk@gig.ac.cn