[1]靳晓言,陈艺冉,郭嘉琛,等.若尔盖湿地潜在蒸散时空动态特征及影响因子[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(01):234-239.
　JIN Xiaoyan,CHEN Yiran,GUO Jiachen,et al.Temporal-Spatial Dynamic Characteristics and Impact Factors of Potential Evapotranspiration in Zoige Wetland[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):234-239.
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若尔盖湿地潜在蒸散时空动态特征及影响因子

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年01期 页码: 234-239 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-02-28
Title:
Temporal-Spatial Dynamic Characteristics and Impact Factors of Potential Evapotranspiration in Zoige Wetland
作者:
靳晓言1,2, 陈艺冉3, 郭嘉琛1,2, 罗登泽1,2, 强皓凡1,2,4
1. 四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室 水利水电学院, 成都 610065;
2. 南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 成都 610066;
3. 山东大学 材料科学与工程学院, 济南 250061;
4. 复旦大学 经济学院, 上海 200433
Author(s):
JIN Xiaoyan1,2, CHEN Yiran3, GUO Jiachen1,2, LUO Dengze1,2, QIANG Haofan1,2,4
1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;
2. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hilly Areas of South China, Chengdu 610066, China;
3. School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China;
4. School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
关键词:
若尔盖湿地; 潜在蒸散; Penman-Monteith模型; 趋势分析; 时空变化
Keywords:
Zoige Wetland; potential evapotranspiration; Penman-Monteith model; trend analysis; temporal-spatial variation
分类号:
P467
摘要:
潜在蒸散（ET0）对水资源评价和气候变化均具有重要意义。利用若尔盖湿地及其周边19个气象站1960-2015年逐日气象资料，根据辐射修正的Penman-Monteith模型计算了湿地潜在蒸散量，采用累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验、Pettitt检验、Theil-Sen趋势度、Hurst指数等方法分析了蒸散变化规律，并对蒸散影响因子进行了主成分分析。结果表明：（1）若尔盖湿地年ET0均值为625.3 mm，并以4.89 mm/10 a的速率显著上升（p<0.01），四季ET0表现为夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季。年、秋、冬ET0分别在1968年（p<0.01），1997年（p<0.01），2003年（p<0.1）突变上升，春、夏两季未出现突变。（2）湿地年均ET0呈南部、东部边缘高、西北-东南一线较低的空间分布特征，且变化速率由东北向西南递减，其中西部班玛以北及南部马尔康、黑水之间地区ET0呈缓慢下降趋势。（3）湿地年ET0的Hurst指数在0.56~0.91间，主要呈四周高、中部低的空间分布规律。未来湿地ET0变化趋势以持续性增加为主，面积比例为96.88%。（4）气温上升是引起湿地ET0增加的最主要原因，其次是日照时数的增加和相对湿度的降低。净辐射、风速和降水量的减少引起的ET0减少被气温等其他因素作用所抵消。
Abstract:
Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is of great significance for water resources assessment and climate change. Based on daily meteorological data of 19 weather stations in Zoige Wetland and its surrounding area from 1960 to 2015, ET0 was calculated by the radiation-calibrated Penman-Monteith model. The temporal-spatial change characteristics of ET0 were analyzed by cumulative departure, Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test, Theil-Sen slope estimator and Hurst index, while the influencing factors of ET0 were investigated by principal component analysis. The results showed that:(1) the average of annual ET0 was 625.3 mm with a significant increasing trend of 4.89 mm/10 a (p < 0.01); The ET0 of four seasons decreased in the sequence:summer > spring > autumn > winter; the annual, autumn and winter ET0 showed a significant abrupt point in 1968 (p < 0.01), 1997 (p < 0.01) and 2003 (p < 0.1), respectively, while there was no mutation in spring and summer ET0; (2) the average annual ET0 was high in the southern and eastern edges and low along the northwest-southeast line with the changing rate decreasing from northeast to southwest, while ET0 of the northern area to Banma and the region between Maerkang and Heishui showed a slowly decreasing trend; (3) the Hurst index of ET0 ranged from 0.56 to 0.91, which mainly distributed high around the circum and low in the middle; the future change trend of ET0 for the entire region is mainly towards a persistent increase and this area accounts for 96.88% of the total; (4) the dominant reason for ET0 increase was temperature increase, followed by sunshine duration increase and relative humidity decrease. The reduction of ET0 caused by decrease of net radiation, wind speed and precipitation is offset by other factors.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-1-23;改回日期:2018-5-24。
基金项目:西北典型农区高效节水灌溉技术与集成（2016YFC0400200）；教育部国家级大学生创新创业训练项目（201710610152）
作者简介:靳晓言(1996-),女,江苏宿迁人,研究生,从事水文统计与地下工程研究。E-mail:jinxiaoyan96@163.com
通讯作者:强皓凡(1996-),男,甘肃白银人,研究生,从事环境变化及资源经济学研究。E-mail:qianghaofan96@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01