[1]周英霞,王全九,张继红,等.基于AquaCrop模型的气候变化对陕西省冬小麦产量影响模拟分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(06):357-364.
　ZHOU Yingxia,WANG Quanjiu,ZHANG Jihong,et al.Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province Based on the AquaCrop Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(06):357-364.
点击复制

基于AquaCrop模型的气候变化对陕西省冬小麦产量影响模拟分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 25 期数: 2018年06期 页码: 357-364 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-10-26
Title:
Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province Based on the AquaCrop Model
作者:
周英霞1, 王全九1,2, 张继红1, 谭帅1, 何斌1
1. 西安理工大学 西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地, 西安 710048;
2. 西北农林科技大学 水土保持研究所 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西 杨凌 712100
Author(s):
ZHOU Yingxia1, WANG Quanjiu1,2, ZHANG Jihong1, TAN Shuai1, HE Bin1
1. State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Losses Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
关键词:
气温; CO2浓度; AquaCrop模型; 冬小麦产量
Keywords:
temperature; CO2 concentration; AquaCrop model; winter wheat yield
分类号:
S512.1;P467
摘要:
通过分析陕西省3个地区（延安、长武及安康）1957—2013年气温和降水等气象因子的变化，运用AquaCrop模型模拟分析了在现状降雨条件下，气温及CO2浓度等气象因子变化对陕西省冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明：气温升高0.1℃，长武及安康分别减产0.3%和0.7%，延安增产0.5%；延安和安康CO2浓度增加20 μmol/mol，两地分别增产3.6%和4.2%，长武CO2浓度增加10 μmol/mol，增产2.2%；气温和CO2浓度同时变化（即气温升高0.1℃同时延安和安康CO2浓度增加20 μmol/mol，长武增加10 μmol/mol），延安、长武和安康分别增产4.0%，2.0%，3.6%。在仅考虑气温及CO2浓度变化的情况下，与2012年相比未来18年3种典型年（枯水年、平水年和丰水年）下，3个地区因区域而表现不同，延安冬小麦增产3.3%～10.3%，长武增产2.3%～10.0%及安康增产1.8%～9.8%。可见，气温与CO2浓度增加，陕西省“暖干+高碳型”或“暖湿+高碳型”气候有利于冬小麦产量的提高，延安 > 长武 > 安康，即可在陕北地区适度增加冬小麦种植面积，提高农业产量。
Abstract:
Analysis of change in meteorological factors like temperature and precipitation during 1957—2013, the effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model under current rainfall condition in three regions (Yan’an, Changwu and Ankang) of Shaanxi Province. The results showed that the annual temperature increased by 0.1℃, the winter wheat yield in Changwu and Ankang were reduced by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, while it increased by 0.5% in Yan’an, when annual CO2 concentration increased by 20 μmol/mol in Yan’an and Ankang, the winter wheat yield increased by 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively, the annual CO2 concentration in Changwu increased by 10 μmol/mol, the yield increased by 2.2%; when the annual temperature and CO2 concentration rose simultaneously, i. e., temperature rose by 0.1℃, CO2 concentration of increased by 20 μmol/mol in Yan’an and Ankang, increased by 10 μmol/mol in Changwu, the winter wheat yield increased by 4.0%, 2.0% and 3.6% in Yan’an, Changwu and Ankang, respectively. Only considering the variation of temperature and CO2 concentration, the winter white yield had different preferences because of the variation of regions. Under three typical years (i. e., dry, normal and wet year), the winter wheat yield may be increased by 3.3%～10.3% in Yan’an, 2.3%～10.0% in Changwu and 1.8%～9.8% in Ankang in the next 18 years compared to that in 2012. Therefore, the increases of temperature and CO2 concentration, the warm-dry and high-carbon as well as the warm-wet and high-carbon climate patterns were conducive to increasing of the winter wheat yield. The increasing rate decreased in the order: Yan’an > Changwu > Ankang, which indicated that it would be possible to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately in order to increase agricultural output in the northern Shaanxi.

参考文献/References:

[1] 吕硕,杨晓光,赵锦.气候变化和品种更替对东北地区春玉米产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(18):179-190.
[2] 孙丽,王飞,李保国,等.基于多源数据的武陵山区干旱监测研究[J].农业机械学报,2014,45(1):246-252.
[3] Luo R L, Zhang B L, Gao J L, et al. Climate change impacts on corn production as evidenced by a model and historical yields in Inner Mongolia, China[J]. Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment, 2012,10(2):976-983.
[4] Thébault A, Mariotte P, Lortie C J, et al. Land management trumps the effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on grassland functioning[J]. Journal of Ecology, 2014,102(4):896-904.
[5] Silva C S D, Weatherhead E K, Knox J W, et al. Predicting the impacts of climate change:A case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2007,93(1):19-29.
[6] Thomas A. Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China[J]. Global & Planetary Change, 2008,60(3/4):306-326.
[7] 蒲金涌,姚小英,王位泰.气候变化对甘肃省冬小麦气候适宜性的影响[J].地理研究,2011,30(1):153-160.
[8] 文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(S2):74-79.
[9] 庞艳梅,陈超,潘学标,等.未来气候情景下四川盆地冬小麦生育期气候资源及生产潜力的变化[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(1):1-9.
[10] 韩雪,郝兴宇,王贺然,等.FACE条件下冬小麦生长特征及产量构成的影响[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(36):154-159.
[11] 房世波,沈斌,谭凯炎,等.大气CO2和温度升高对农作物生理及生产的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2010,18(5):1116-1124.
[12] Shu K L, Chen D, Norton R, et al. Nitrogen demand and the recovery of 15 N-labelled fertilizer in wheat grown under elevated carbon dioxide in southern Australia[J]. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 2012,92(2):133-144.
[13] Kim H Y, Lim S S, Kwak J H, et al. Dry matter and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in rice (Oryza sativa L.) exposed to experimental warming with elevated CO2[J]. Plant & Soil, 2011,342(1/2):59-71.
[14] 杨轩,王自奎,曹铨,等.陇东地区几种旱作作物产量对降水与气温变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(9):106-114.
[15] 杨建莹,梅旭荣,刘勤,等.气候变化背景下华北地区冬小麦生育期的变化特征[J].植物生态学报,2011,35(6):623-631.
[16] 景毅刚,范建忠,高茂盛.气候变暖对陕西冬小麦生育期的影响[J].麦类作物学报,2013,33(2):389-396.
[17] 鲁清林,叶石,何春雨,等.冬麦北移后小麦籽粒灌浆特性的初步研究[J].麦类作物学报,2008,28(2):281-286.
[18] 陕西省统计局,国家统计局陕西调查队.陕西统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2014.
[19] 杜文勇,何雄奎, Shamaila Z,等.冬小麦生物量和产量的AquaCrop模型预测[J].农业机械学报,2011,42(4):174-183.
[20] 郭兆元.陕西土壤[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.
[21] 康绍忠.陕西省作物需水量及分区灌溉模式[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1992.
[22] 姚玉璧,张秀云,王润元.西北温凉半湿润区气候变化对马铃薯生长发育的影响:以甘肃岷县为例[J].生态学报,2010,30(1):100-108.
[23] 孙向伟,高飞翔,王文鑫,等.临河地区气候变化及对春小麦产量的影响[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(3):115-119.
[24] 佚名.天气气候异常的标准[J].青海气象,2014(1):49.
[25] 国家气候中心.气象干旱等级GB/T2048-2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[26] 王翔翔.渭北旱塬作物生长特征及其管理模式[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2015.
[27] 成林,刘荣花,马志红.增温对河南省冬小麦产量的影响分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(4):854-859.
[28] Dueri S, Calanca P L, Fuhrer J. Climate change affects farm nitrogen loss:A Swiss case study with a dynamic farm model[J]. Agricultural Systems, 2007,93(1/3):191-214.
[29] 徐芸皎. CO2浓度和温度升高对冬小麦生长发育及需水量的影响[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2014.
[30] Peet M M, Huber S C, Patterson D T. Acclimation to high CO(2) in monoecious cucumbers:Ⅱ. carbon exchange rates, enzyme activities, and starch and nutrient concentrations[J]. Plant Physiology, 1986,80(1):63-67.
[31] Girardin M P, Bernier P Y, Raulier F, et al. Testing for a CO2 fertilization effect on growth of Canadian boreal forests[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, 2015,116(G1):G01012.
[32] 姜帅,居辉,吕小溪,等.CO2浓度升高与水分互作对冬小麦生长发育的影响[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(4):403-409.
[33] 李广,李玥,黄高宝.基于APSIM模型旱地春小麦产量对温度和CO2浓度升高的响应[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(8):1088-1095.
[34] Batts G R, Morison J I L, Ellis R H, et al. Effects of CO2 and temperature on growth and yield of crops of winter wheat over four seasons[J]. Developments in Crop Science, 1997,25(1/3):67-76.
[35] 杨连新,李世峰,王余龙,等.开放式空气二氧化碳浓度增高对小麦产量形成的影响[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(1):75-80.

相似文献/References:

[1]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
　MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):122.
[2]张月丛,张才玉,成福伟,等.承德市近58年气温和降水序列多时间尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):70.
　ZHANG Yue-cong,ZHANG Cai-yu,CHENG Fu-wei,et al.Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Recent 58 Years in Chengde City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):70.
[3]郭忠升,施立民,刘向东,等.柠条灌木林小气候研究初报[J].水土保持研究,1991,(02):84.
　Guo Zhongsheng,Shi Limin,Liu Xiangdong,et al.A PRELIMNARY STUDY ON MICROCLIMATE IN LITTLELEAF PEASHRUB SHRUBBERY[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1991,(06):84.
[4]黄炎和,杨学震,沈林洪,等.侵蚀劣地果园套种绿肥对地温和气温的影响[J].水土保持研究,2000,7(03):222.
　HUANG Yan-he,YANG Xue-zhen,SHEN Lin-hong,et al.Effects of Interplanting Green Manures with the Orchard of the Eroded Inferior Lands on the Air and Ground Temperature[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,7(06):222.
[5]潘渝,郭谨,李毅,等.地膜覆盖条件下的土壤增温特性[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(02):130.
　PAN yu,GUO Jin,LI Yi,et al.Characteristics of Increasing Temperature in Soils With Plastic Mulching[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2002,9(06):130.
[6]刘占静.2003年玛纳斯河汛期水情特征及其成因[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(04):198.
　LIU Zhan-jing.Discharge Characteristic of the Manasi River During Flood Season of 2003[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(06):198.
[7]严汾,蒙吉军.贵州省清镇市近50年来气候系统的多时间尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(04):93.
　YAN Fen,MENG Ji-jun.Multi-timescales Analysis of Climate Variation in Qingzhen Town in the Last 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(06):93.
[8]刘新春,杨金龙,杨青.三工河流域40年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(06):54.
　LIU Xin-chun,YANG Jin-long,YANG Qing.Analysis on the Variations Characteristics of Air Temperature, Precipitation in the Sangong River Basin in the Past 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(06):54.
[9]刘新春,梁云,赵玲,等.三工河流域气候、水文变化及其影响[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(03):21.
　LIU Xin-chun,LIANG Yun,ZHAO Ling,et al.Change of Climate and Hydrology in the Sangong River Basin and Their Impact[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(06):21.
[10]秦金虎,秦金学,王云璋,等.水利水保工程对局地温度、湿度影响及其计算方法[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):203.
　QIN Jin-hu,QIN Jin-xue,WANG Yun-zhang,et al.The Impacts of Water Conservancy Projects on Local Temperature and Humidity and Its Calculation Methods[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):203.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2017-12-27;改回日期:2018-01-09。
基金项目:陕西水利科技计划项目“陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划”（2014-1010）
作者简介:周英霞(1995-),女,青海海东人,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为农业水土资源与生态环境。E-mail:193208448@qq.com
通讯作者:王全九(1964-),男,教授,内蒙古丰镇人,博士生导师,主要从事农业水土工程研究。E-mail:wquanjiu@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01