SHI Jialiang,WANG Xiuru,LI Shufang,et al.Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature and Precipitation in He’nan Province in Recent 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(03):151-156.
近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析
- Title:
- Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature and Precipitation in He’nan Province in Recent 50 Years
- Keywords:
- precipitation; air temperature; Kriging interpolation; He’nan Province
- 分类号:
- P468
- 摘要:
- 在全球变暖大背景下，对河南省近50年来气温和降雨的时空变化与突变特征进行了分析研究。基于河南省17个气象站1965—2014年的日平均气温和逐日降水资料，采用气候倾向率法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall秩相关检验、Morlet小波分析、Kriging空间插值等方法，分析研究了河南省近50年来的气温和降水量时空变化特征。河南省近50年来平均气温总体呈增暖趋势，气候倾向率为0.19℃/10 a（p < 0.01），春季升温最快，秋冬次之，夏季气温趋势反而略有下降，年均气温在80—90年代有短暂下降，90年代后开始变暖；河南省降水量整体略呈增加趋势，但变化趋势不明显，气候倾向率为2.8 mm/10 a（p > 0.05），夏季降水量增加较快，春秋降雨量略有减少。近50 a来年降雨量经历了增—减—增—减的变化，60年代到80年代增加，80年代到90年代中旬减少，90年代到21世纪初再次增加，2003年至今持续减少。河南省气温存在27年的强显著周期，此外还有15 a的周期变化；而降水量则存在12 a的显著周期，此外还有5 a和30 a的周期。空间分布上，气温有东南高西北低的特点，且中部升温更快；降水量则南多北少，南部有减少趋势，中部、东部有增多趋势。
- Abstract:
- Under the background of global warming, the temporal and spatial variation of air temperature and precipitation in He’nan Province in recent 50 years were analyzed. Based on the daily average air temperature and daily precipitation data observed at 17 meteorological stations covering He’nan Province， the characteristics of climate changes from 1965 to 2014 were analyzed with the methods of climate tendency rate， cumulative anomaly method， Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelets analysis method and Kriging interpolation and so on. The results show that the average air temperature of He’nan Provincer showed the upward trend in recent 50 years， of which the climate tendency rate is 0.19℃/decade (p < 0.01). As for the seasonal temperatures， the temperature in summer was the only one that showed a declining trend， the others showed increasing trends， and the tendency rate in spring was the highest. The decade change of temperature showed that the average temperature during 1980 to 1990 dropped a little， and then it started to go up；the annual precipitation showed an overall upward trend， but the trend was not significant, it increased by 2.8 mm/decade (p > 0.05), the summer precipitation increased faster， the spring and autumn precipitation decreased a little. Over the past 50 years， the precipitation was rising from 1960s to 1980s， and then declining from 1980s to the middle 1990s， after that it went up again until the 21th century， and since 2003 the precipitation has continued to decrease. The result of Morlet wavelets analysis showed that the temperature of He’nan Province fluctuated significantly with the 27-year interval， and the other 15-year interval can also be seen；the precipitation fluctuated with the 12-year interval, accompanied by other 5-year and 30-year intervals. As for spatial distribution， the temperature of southeastern He’nan Provincer was higher than that of the northwestern area， and the central region has been warming faster； the precipitation in the south was richer than that in the north， but it also has a decreasing trend in the south， the precipitation in the central and eastern region showed an upward trend.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2016-06-22;改回日期:2016-06-29。
基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项（201401001）
作者简介:史佳良(1990-),男,河南洛阳人,在读硕士,主要研究方向:水土保持与荒漠化防治。E-mail:376852612@qq.com
通讯作者:王秀茹(1957-),女,河北保定人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事流域管理、水资源及农田水利等研究。E-mail:wang-xr@163.com