[1]李小丽,敖天其,黎小东.古蔺县近50年来降水序列趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(06):140-144.
　LI Xiaoli,AO Tianqi,LI Xiaodong.Analysis of Tendency of Precipitation in the Past 50 Years in Gulin County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):140-144.
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古蔺县近50年来降水序列趋势分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 23 期数: 2016年06期 页码: 140-144 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-12-28
Title:
Analysis of Tendency of Precipitation in the Past 50 Years in Gulin County
作者:
李小丽1, 敖天其1,2, 黎小东1
1. 四川大学 水利水电学院, 成都 610065;
2. 四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 成都 610065
Author(s):
LI Xiaoli1, AO Tianqi1,2, LI Xiaodong1
1. College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
关键词:
降水量; MMK趋势检验法; 趋势演变; 古蔺县
Keywords:
precipitation; MMK trend test; trend evolution; Gulin County
分类号:
P426.6;TV125
摘要:
以1960—2009年古蔺县降水量观测资料为基础，运用数理统计、非参数Mann-Kendall（MK）和改进的非参数Mann-Kendall（MMK）趋势检验等方法分析了该县降水系列的年际、年内变化趋势，并通过比较MK和MMK趋势检验法的计算结果来分析自相关性对降水序列趋势显著性的影响。结果表明：古蔺县近50年来年降水量总体在均值附近上下波动，呈缓慢下降趋势；年内降水量分配受季节影响显著，春夏两季降水量呈上升趋势，秋冬两季降水量呈下降趋势；各降水序列进行趋势检验时，无论考虑自相关性与否，均未通过5%显著性水平；在使用MK方法时，古蔺县年降水序列和季降水序列均存在负向的自相关性，导致在同水平显著程度上低估了序列的趋势显著性。
Abstract:
Based on the data of precipitation from 1960-2009 in Gulin County, the mathematical statistics method and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and the modified non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test were applied to analyze the inter-annual variability and annual variation characteristics. By comparison of the calculation results between the MK and MMK trend tests, we analyzed the effects of the serial autocorrelation on the significant level of the trend. The results showed that the inter-annual precipitation series of Gulin County fluctuated around the average mean and decreased slightly in recent 50 years in general; the distribution of annual precipitation was significantly affected by seasons; the precipitation had an increasing trend in spring and summer, while the downward trend was observed in autumn and winter; none of them was statistically significant at the significant level of 5% considering the serial autocorrelation or not, when precipitation sequences were in trend tests. By using method of the MK trend test, the inter-annual and seasonal precipitation series existed negative serial autocorrelations and led to underestimate the significance of sequence trend at the same significant level.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-03-25;改回日期:2016-04-25。
基金项目:中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放资助项目（LPM2014003）；四川省科技厅科技支撑项目（2015SZ0212）；四川省环境保护厅科技项目（11HBT-01）
作者简介:李小丽(1990-),女,河北衡水人,硕士研究生,研究方向为农村非点源污染与分布式水文模型。E-mail:m18328005980@163.com
通讯作者:敖天其(1964-),男,重庆铜梁人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为农村非点源污染与分布式水文模型。E-mail:als584@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01