基于Logistic-CA-Markov与InVEST模型对南京市土地利用与生物多样性功能模拟评价

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 23 期数: 2016年03期页码: 82-89 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-06-28

Title:: Assessment on Land Use and Biodiversity in Nanjing City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov and InVEST Model

作者:: 荣月静¹, 张慧^1,2, 王岩松³; 1. 环境保护部南京环境科学研究所, 南京 210042;
2. 南京信息工程大学大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心, 南京 210044;
3. 辽宁省环境科学研究院, 沈阳 110015

Author(s):: RONG Yuejing¹, ZHANG Hui^1,2, WANG Yansong³; 1. Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, MEP, Nanjing 210042, China;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology(CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. Liaoning Academy of Environmental Research, Shenyang 110015, China

摘要:: 针对目前国际上应用比较广泛的Logistic模型，在此基础上加入空间自相关变量，应用1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年4期土地利用数据，再结合CA-Markov模型模拟预测了南京市2025年3种不同情景（自然增长情景、生态保护情景和土地优化情景）下的土地利用发展方向；进一步结合InVEST模型，研究以上4年土地利用变化下的生物多样性服务功能分布和变化，以及2025年不同模拟情景下的生物多样性服务功能分布情况。结果表明：Logistic-CA-Markov模型精度Kappa值均在0.80以上，预测效果较好。在不同的情景设置下，土地利用存在明显的空间差异：自然增长情景按原有速率变化，则建设用地快速发展并占用大量耕地，生物多样性受到严重威胁，生态保护情景和土地优化情景对未来土地调控效果较好，生物多样性功能得到很好改善，可以为当地土地利用总体规划提供科学决策参考。

Abstract:: Adopting the international widely used model: logistic model jointing the autocorrelation on the basis of traditional Logistic binary regression, and combining the CA-Markov model based on land use data of 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015, the land use changes of three different scenarios (natural growth situation, ecological protection and land optimization scenario) of Nanjing City in 2025 were predicted, we further used InVEST model to examine the distribution of biodiversity service function and change under the land use changes in 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and the distribution of biodiversity service function of year 2025. The results showed that Logistic-CA-Markov regression model Kappa value was greater than 0.80, it was a good prediction effect. There was the obvious spatial difference of land use in the different scenarios, in natural growth situation, the construction land increased rapidly according to the original rate, farm land took up seriously, the overall environment quality reduced seriously, habitat degradation was obvious. Ecological protection and land optimization scenarios for the future land control effect are good, the biodiversity service function is improved, it can provide scientific decision-making reference for the local land use planning.

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01