ZHANG He-xi,CHI Dao-cai,WANG Yong-tao,et al.Applied Research of the Rainfall Forecast Model Based on NNBR and Monte-Carlo Algorithm[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(02):106-110.
基于NNBR与蒙特卡洛算法的降雨量预报模型应用研究
- Title:
- Applied Research of the Rainfall Forecast Model Based on NNBR and Monte-Carlo Algorithm
- 分类号:
- P457.6
- 摘要:
- 从统计学的观点去了解和分析降雨历史的复杂过程，并从中发现其存在的内在规律，为预测未来降雨量提供理论依据。该文在分析了蒙特卡洛算法及其分布函数的基础上，使用P-Ⅲ型分布函数对降雨量进行模拟，提出了基于NNBR与蒙特卡洛算法相结合的降雨量预报模型。通过基于NNBR的蒙特卡洛预测值与实际值验证得出，各年的误差均小于10%，循环次数增加，误差逐渐变小，所以本文所建立的预报模型基本可以满足生产实际要求。同时，基于NNBR模型的蒙特卡洛算法优于仅使用蒙特卡洛算法的比率为89.1%，表明本文所使用的预测效果较优。最后，以北盘江水系50 a数据对预报模型结果进行验证，并对未来5 a的降雨量开展了预测。预测结果既体现了降雨量的随机性和统计的规律性，又反映出降雨序列的时间性，应用效果较好。
- Abstract:
- From the statistical point, the complex historical process of rainfall was understood and analyzed, and the inherent law of its existence was found for the purpose of providing the theoretical basis for predicting the future rainfall. This paper had analyzed the Monte-Carlo algorithm and its distribution function, we had used the P-type Ⅲ distribution function to simulate rainfall and put forward the rainfall forecast model based on NNBR algorithm and the Monte-Carlo algorithm. Based on comparing Monte-Carlo predicted value to obserbed value, the result of error is less than 10%, the more cycling times, the less error, so the prediction model established in this paper can meet the production requirements basically. At the same time, the model based on NNBR Monte-Carlo algorithm is better than that of only using the Monte-Carlo algorithm of the ratio of 89.1%, indicating that the forecast accuracy presented in the paper is the best. Finally, with Beipaniiang drainage 50 years data，we had validated the result from the forecast model, and rainfall was predicted in the next five years. The results not only embody the randomness and statistical regularity of rainfall, but also reflect the rainfall sequence of timeliness, and the application effect is good.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2013-08-21;改回日期:2013-09-23。
基金项目:国家公益性行业（农业）科研专项（201303125）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201201025，201301039）
作者简介:张和喜(1980-),男,湖北荆州人,在读博士,主要从事节水灌溉原理与技术研究。E-mail:hexi0926@126.com
通讯作者:迟道才(1964-),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士生导师,主要从事灌溉排水原理与技术。E-mail:daocaichi@vip.sina.com