LI Ling,HOU Shu-tao,ZHAO Yue,et al.Evaluation and Forecast of Land Ecology Security of He’nan Province Based on P-S-R Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(01):188-192.
基于P-S-R模型的河南省土地生态安全评价及预测
- Title:
- Evaluation and Forecast of Land Ecology Security of He’nan Province Based on P-S-R Model
- 分类号:
- F323.211
- 摘要:
- 依据P-S-R框架模型构建土地生态安全评价指标体系，运用土地生态安全综合指数模型评价2002—2011年河南省土地生态安全状况，并运用灰色系统GM（1，1）模型预测其未来9 a的土地生态安全态势。结果表明：2002—2011年河南省土地生态安全值在0.45上下波动，土地生态处于临界安全水平，2012—2020年呈下降趋势，表明土地生态系统结构发生变化，土地生态环境受到一定破坏，土地生态系统服务功能已开始退化，虽尚可维持其基本功能，但受干扰后易恶化，土地生态环境脆弱，制约了区域经济的发展。该研究可为改善区域生态环境及生态安全规划管理提供依据。
- Abstract:
- According to P-S-R framework model, the evaluation index system of land ecological security was built, the composite index model was used to evaluate the land ecological security situation in He’nan Province from 2002 to 2011, and the gray system GM(1, 1) model was used to predict the land ecological situation in the next nine years. Results showed that the land ecology was at a critical security level, and the secure value fluctuated around 0.45 from 2002 to 2011 and would decrease from 2012 to 2020. It indicated that the structure of land ecological system had been changed and the land ecological environment had been destroyed to some extent, land ecosystem service function had begun to degenerate. The basic ecological system functions were fair to maintain, but could be deteriorated easily after disturbance, and land ecological environment would be fragile, restricting the development of regional economy. This study can provide the basis to improve the regional eco-environmental planning and ecological security management.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2013-06-13;改回日期:2013-07-15。
基金项目:东北农业大学创新团队基金项目“黑土保护与可持续利用”（CXT003-4-2）
作者简介:李玲(1987-),女,河南开封人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地利用规划与管理。E-mail:815898437@qq.com
通讯作者:侯淑涛(1965-),女,黑龙江桦川人,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事农业遥感和土地利用研究。E-mail:houst129@126.com