[1]吕萍,刘东,赵菲菲.三江平原地下水埋深灰色自记忆预测模型[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(05):239-242.
　LÜ,Ping,LIU Dong,et al.Grey Self-memory Model for Groundwater Depth Prediction in Sanjiang Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(05):239-242.
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三江平原地下水埋深灰色自记忆预测模型

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 18 期数: 2011年05期 页码: 239-242 栏目: 出版日期: 2011-10-20
Title:
Grey Self-memory Model for Groundwater Depth Prediction in Sanjiang Plain
作者:
吕萍1, 刘东1,2, 赵菲菲1
1. 东北农业大学 水利与建筑学院, 哈尔滨 150030;
2. 东北农业大学 农林经济管理博士后科研流动站, 哈尔滨 150030
Author(s):
LÜ Ping1, LIU Dong1,2, ZHAO Fei-fei1
1. School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;
2. Postdoctoral Scientific Research Mobile Station of Agriculture and Forestry Economic Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
关键词:
三江平原; 地下水埋深预测; 灰色微分方程; 自记忆
Keywords:
Sanjiang Plain; prediction of groundwater depth; grey differential equation; self-memory
分类号:
P332.3
摘要:
地下水资源是支撑区域粮食生产的重要基础资源。针对三江平原水田面积迅速增加、地下水水位持续下降问题，以建三江分局七星农场为例，依据1997-2007年地下水埋深监测资料，运用灰色微分方程与自记忆原理构建地下水埋深灰色自记忆预测模型。结果表明：该模型简洁实用，精度较高，当地未来地下水水位具有持续下降趋势。研究成果揭示了当地地下水埋深的时间变化规律，为七星农场乃至三江平原地下水资源可持续开发利用提供依据。
Abstract:
Groundwater resources play an important role in supporting the regional grain production. In view of the problems of paddy field area increasing rapidly and groundwater level decreasing continuously, this study took Farm Qixing in Jiansanjiang branch bureau as an example. According to the groundwater depth monitoring data from 1997 to 2007, the paper established the grey self-memory model for groundwater depth prediction based on grey differential equation and self-memory theory. The results show that the model is feasible, has high accuracy, and the future local groundwater depth has a tendency of continuously decreasing. The study results indicate the temporal variation regulation of local groundwater depth. It provides basis for sustainable development and utilization of groundwater resources in Farm Qixing and even in the entire Sanjiang Plain.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2011-3-9;修回日期:2011-3-25
基金项目:黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目（11541024）
作者简介:吕萍（1985- ），女，吉林龙井人，硕士生，主要研究方向为农业水土资源系统分析与优化利用。E-mail：pingping.85@163.com
通讯作者:刘东（1972－）,男,黑龙江安达人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为农业水土资源系统分析与优化利用。E-mail：liu72dong@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01