LIU De-lin.Variation Characteristics and Abrupt Change Analysis of Precipitation in Zhengzhou City over the Last 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(05):236-238.
郑州市近60年来降水变化特征及突变分析
- Title:
- Variation Characteristics and Abrupt Change Analysis of Precipitation in Zhengzhou City over the Last 60 Years
- 关键词:
- 郑州市; 气候变化; 变点分析; Mann-kendall
- Keywords:
- Zhengzhou City; climate change; abrupt analysis; Mann-Kendall method
- 分类号:
- P332.1
- 摘要:
- 利用郑州市1951-2008年降水资料，采用线性倾向估计和Mann-Kendall变点检测法，对郑州市降水的年季变化趋势、年内分配特征及突变性进行了分析。结果表明：（1）近60年来，郑州市年降水量总体呈上升趋势，降水倾向率为14.19 mm/10 a；各季降水量与年降水量变化趋势基本相似，整体亦呈增加趋势，但增加的幅度均明显小于年降水量。（2）郑州市降水量年内分配十分不均，主要集中在6-9月。（3）郑州市年降水量在1953年、1958年、1964年和1997年共发生4次突变，春季和秋季分别发生3次，夏季和冬季相对较少，分别发生2次和1次突变。
- Abstract:
- Based on the daily and monthly precipitation data (1951-2008) of Zhengzhou City, the yearly and seasonal change characteristics and abrupt change of precipitation were analyzed by using the linear trend estimate and Mann-Kendall methods. The results showed that: (1) the annual precipitation had an increasing trend in recent 60 years, and the trend rate was 14.19 mm/10 a. The precipitation change trend in each season was similar to that of annual, but the increased scope was obviously lower than the annual precipitation; (2) annual distribution of precipitation in Zhengzhou City was very uneventful, the precipitation mainly occurred from June to September; (3) annual precipitation abrupt change took place in 1953, 1958, 1964 and 1997, the precipitation abrupt change in spring and autumn took place three times, respectively, and that in summer and winter took place twice and once, respectively.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2011-1-7;修回日期:2011-3-12
基金项目:河南省教育厅自然科学基金（2009A170003）；河南省政府决策研究招标课题（2011B231）；河南理工大学博士基金（B2011-033）
作者简介:刘德林（1979- ），男，山东潍坊人，博士，讲师，主要从事水土资源高效利用与应急管理方面的研究与工作。E-mail：liudelina@163.com