ZHOU Xuan-de.Modeling Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation of Turpan[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(03):55-60.
吐鲁番地区经济增长与环境质量水平的计量模型研究
- Title:
- Modeling Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation of Turpan
- 分类号:
- X22
- 摘要:
- 经济的发展总是会伴随着环境问题的产生，特别是在经济快速增长阶段，环境问题显得更为尖锐，两者的矛盾似乎不可协调。该文选取吐鲁番地区2001-2008年的经济环境数据，在经济与环境现状分析的基础上，运用计量模型对环境质量与经济增长关系进行回归分析，得出吐鲁番地区两者的最优模型，并对模型进行了实证分析。研究表明：吐鲁番地区环境质量与经济发展之间存在着密切的相关关系，各环境质量指标与人均GDP的关系有倒“U”型、正“U”型和线性递增三种关系；综合环境质量与经济增长呈明显的递减关系，即随着经济增长其环境质量有下降的趋势。模型的建立不仅定量揭示出经济增长与环境质量之间的关系，而且剖析了经济增长与环境质量之间的变化规律，为该地区经济持续快速的增长，减少环境污染和资源浪费有着重要意义。在今后的城市建设中，吐鲁番地区应加大城市环境保护工作的力度， 以此来保证环境污染的有效控制，使得经济与环境质量协调发展。
- Abstract:
- Economic development will always be accompanied by environmental problems,particularly in the phase of rapid economic growth,which is even more acute environmental problems,and seems irreconcilable contradiction between them.This paper selected Turpan region’s economic environmental data of from 2001 to 2008,established the regression model of the economic growth and environmental pollution on the basis of economic and environmental situation analysis,and analyzed the models.The results showed that the relationship between environmental quality and economic development in Turpan is close.The environmental quality indicators and the relationship between per capita GDP are inverted ’U’ pattern,’U’ pattern,and linear increasing.Integrated environmental quality and economic growth in the relationship was significantly reduced,that the quality of environment with economic growth has declined.A quantitative model not only reveals the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality,but also analyzes interactive process between economic growth and environmental quality.These are of great significance of the sustainable and rapid economic growth,and reduce the environmental pollution and waste of resources.Overall,urban environmental protection should be reinforced in the future urban development of Turpan region.In particular,the class should be undertaken in non-industrial environmental pollution control work.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2010-11-15;改回日期:2010-12-5。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40861006）;国际合作项目（41010104040）
作者简介:苏力叶·木沙江（1985- ），女，新疆焉耆县人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向：资源利用与城乡规划。E-mail：suriya3175＠sina.com
通讯作者:孜比布拉·司马义（1962- ），男，新疆焉耆县人，博士，教授，主要研究方向：城市发展与城市规划。E-mail：zibibulla3283@yahoo.com.cn