CHENG Xiao-xia,FANG Jian-gang,SUN Xian,et al.Analysis on Variation and Sensitivity of Utilizable Precipitation of Shaanxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(05):45-50.
陕西省可利用降水资源的气候变化特征及敏感性分析
- Title:
- Analysis on Variation and Sensitivity of Utilizable Precipitation of Shaanxi Province
- Keywords:
- evaporation; water resource; climate change; sensitivity
- 分类号:
- P426.614
- 摘要:
- 利用陕西省74站1960-2007年月降水和月气温资料，采用高桥浩一郎公式对陕西近50年可利用降水资源的气候变化特征进行分析，并讨论了水资源对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明，陕西可利用降水资源南多北少，且季节分布不均，主要集中在夏秋季；近50年来可利用降水资源趋于减少，有明显的年代际变化特征，20世纪60年代和80年代明显偏多，90年代显著偏少，进入21世纪有所增加。敏感性分析表明，可利用降水资源对气候变化的敏感性冬季最强，夏季最弱；陕北最强，陕南最弱；对降水的敏感性大于气温；降水不变，对气温的敏感性随气温增加而减小；气温不变，对降水的敏感性随降水增加而更显著；降水增加，对气温的响应更敏感；气温增加，对降水的响应减弱。
- Abstract:
- By using monthly precipitation and temperature received from 74 observed stations from 1960 to 2007 and employed Takahashi’s evaporation equation,we analyze the variability of utilizable precipitation in the past 50 years and discuss the sensitivity of utilizable precipitation to climate change further.The results show as follows: utilizable precipitation is more sufficient in southern regions of Shaanxi than in the north,and more rich in summer and autumn.In the recent 50 years,utilizable precipitation declined with obvious interdecadal variation,for example,utilizable precipitation is higher in 1960s and 1980s,but lower in 1990s.The study of sensitivity indicates that the influence of climate change on utilizable precipitation is the most significant in winter and feeblest in summer; in different regions,the response of utilizable precipitation is more significant in the north than in the south of Shaanxi.Moreover,the change of precipitation leads to more notable utilizable precipitation variation than temperature; the more significantly the temperature or precipitation changes,the more sensitively the utilizable precipitation changes.Also,temperature could have bigger effects on utilizable precipitation when the precipitation is increasing,and the utilizable precipitation is more sensitive to precipitation change with the increase of temperature.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2009-3-8;
基金项目:公益性行业（气象）科研专项基金资助项目（GYHY200706029）
作者简介:程肖侠(1980-)，女，陕西韩城人，主要从事气候变化研究分析。E-mail：shuishixiaoyue@hotmail.com