[1]杨东,焦金鱼,田娜.基于突变理论的岷县山区泥石流危险性区划研究[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(04):5-9.
　YANG Dong,JIAO Jin-yu,TIAN Na.Research on Debris Flow Harzard Zonation Based on Catastrophe Theory in the Min County, Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(04):5-9.
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基于突变理论的岷县山区泥石流危险性区划研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 15 期数: 2008年04期 页码: 5-9 栏目: 出版日期: 2008-08-20
Title:
Research on Debris Flow Harzard Zonation Based on Catastrophe Theory in the Min County, Gansu Province
作者:
杨东, 焦金鱼, 田娜
西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070
Author(s):
YANG Dong, JIAO Jin-yu, TIAN Na
College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
关键词:
泥石流; 突变级数法; 危险性区划
Keywords:
debris flow; Catastrophe Progression Method; harzard zonation
分类号:
P642.23
摘要:
目前对泥石流的危险性评价方面使用的方法有模糊数学法、人工神经网络、GIS等。但这些方法均缺乏系统间由量变到质变的非线性突变特征。运用突变级数法将突变理论和模糊数学相结合，针对甘肃省岷县6个流域单元进行了危险性评价，采用多准则多目标决策问题的基本思想和步骤，不需对评价指标赋以精确权重，它只考虑指标的相对重要性，避免了直接使用难于确定且主观性较大的“权重”概念，因而显得更加简捷方便。同时，评价结果与当地实际情况相符合，通过实例证明了该方法在泥石流危险性评价方面的可行性。
Abstract:
At present, there have many methods for the debris flow harzard assessments, such as fuzzy mathematic, artificial neural network, GIS etc. But, these methods are also short of nonlinearity catastrophe characteristic from quantitative change to qualitative change among systems. We use Catastrophe Progression Method to evaluate the harzard of the six valley units in the Min County of Gansu Province combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics.This paper adopts the main steps and ideas of a method using catastrophe theory called catastrophe progression method and only considers the relative importance of the index, so the method avoids the subjectivity for weight decision and works simply. The resuts are found to be coincident with practical situation, so it proves the catastrophe progression method works well at the aspect of the danger evaluation to the debris flow according to the factual case.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2007-5-15。
基金项目:教育部重点项目（05JJDZH234）；国家自然科学基金项目（40473006）；甘肃省自然科学基金（3ZS051-A25-009）；西北师范大学自然地理学省级重点学科
作者简介:杨东（1968- ），男，湖北宜昌人，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为区域资源、环境变迁与全球变化。E-mail：jiaojinyu2006@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01