[1]仙巍,邵怀勇,周万村.嘉陵江中下游地区土地利用格局变化的动态监测与预测[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(02):61-64.
　XIAN Wei,SHAO Huai-yong,ZHOU Wan-cun.The Dynamic Monitoring and Prediction of Land Use Pattern in the Area of Middle and Lower Reaches of the Jialingjiang River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(02):61-64.
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嘉陵江中下游地区土地利用格局变化的动态监测与预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 12 期数: 2005年02期 页码: 61-64 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
The Dynamic Monitoring and Prediction of Land Use Pattern in the Area of Middle and Lower Reaches of the Jialingjiang River
作者:
仙巍1,2, 邵怀勇1,2, 周万村1
1. 中国科学院·水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 四川 成都 610041;
2. 中国科学院研究生院 北京 100039
Author(s):
XIAN Wei1,2, SHAO Huai-yong1,2, ZHOU Wan-cun1
1. Chengdu Institute of Mountain Disaster and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China;
2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
关键词:
土地利用格局; 动态监测; 预测; 马尔柯夫模型
Keywords:
land use pattern; dynamic monitoring; prediction; Markov model
分类号:
F301.2;TP79
摘要:
在遥感和GIS技术的支持下，定量分析研究区1986～2000年的土地利用动态变化过程，以及土地利用各类型之间的相互转化状况，并对研究区土地利用动态变化的驱动力进行了分析。运用马尔柯夫原理，对研究区未来土地利用演变趋势进行模拟与预测。作者认为，必须在提高全民环保意识、坚决贯彻国家相应法规政策的前提下，科学规划城镇建设，严格控制城镇用地，大力发展生态农业，加强天然林保护，搞好退耕还林还草并有规划的植树造林，建立区域外补偿机制，以实现研究区国土资源的可持续利用。
Abstract:
Supported by remote sensing,the dynamic evolution process of land use and the transformation of each other among all types of land use were analyzed quantitatively.And the driving forces about the dynamic change of land use in the study area were discussed.The evolution tendency of land use in the future was simulated and predicted with Markov model in the study area in order to provide some methods for sustainable use of territorial resources.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2004-6-28;
基金项目:中科院知识创新方向性项目“长江上游地表覆被变化及信息系统”（KZCXZ-SW-319）；科技部国际合作重点项目“中国西部开发的生态研究综合评价”（2001DFDF0004）资助
作者简介:仙巍（1979- ），女，硕士，主要从事遥感与地理信息系统技术集成与应用研究.

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01