[1]Hu Yizhi,Yu Dun.Transmission Effect and Prediction of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Urban Agglomeration Around Poyang Lake[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):342-353.
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Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
31
Number of periods:
2024 02
Page number:
342-353
Column:
Public date:
2024-03-20
- Title:
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Transmission Effect and Prediction of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Urban Agglomeration Around Poyang Lake
- Author(s):
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Hu Yizhi, Yu Dun
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(College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China)
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- Keywords:
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land use carbon emission; carbon conduction effect; FLUS-Markov model; GM-Markov model; urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake
- CLC:
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F301.2
- DOI:
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- Abstract:
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[Objective] The purposes of the study are to quantify the land use carbon conduction effect from the perspective of land type transformation, to predict the future land use carbon emission trend of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake, and to provide a decision-making basis for regional low-carbon land use management. [Methods] Based on the results of carbon emissions change of land use in the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake from 2000 to 2020, a carbon transmission effect measurement model was constructed to reveal the change of internal carbon emissions of land use transfer, and the FLUS-Markov model and GM-Markov model were used to predict the future carbon emissions of land use. [Results] From 2000 to 2020, a total of 1.01×104km2 land in the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake was transformed, and the mutual transformation between cultivated land and forestland and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land were the most active. From 2000 to 2020, the net carbon emissions from land use of urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake increased from 8.79×106t to 3.63×107t, and the carbon source/sink ratio increased year by year. Among them, construction land was the main carbon source and forestland was the main carbon sink. The carbon transmission effect of land use in different periods showed carbon emissions, which increased first and then decreased. A total of 4.05×107t carbon emission was generated during the study period, which was mainly caused by the transfer of farmland, forestland and water area to construction land. In 2025, 2030 and 2035, the carbon emissions from land use of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake will be 4.13×107t, 4.69×107t and 5.39×107t, respectively. [Conclusion] In the future, the carbon emissions from land use in urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake will continue to increase. The focus of emission reduction should be on reducing the carbon sources of construction land and increasing the carbon sinks of forestland.