[1]Hu Jixi,Le Xianwen,Xu Yong.Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):299-309.
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Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
31
Number of periods:
2024 02
Page number:
299-309
Column:
Public date:
2024-03-20
- Title:
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Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model
- Author(s):
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Hu Jixi1, Le Xianwen2, Xu Yong3
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(1.School of Public Administration and Law, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China; 2.School of Business, Pingxiang University, Pingxiang, Jiangxi 337055, China; 3.College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, GuiLin, Guangxi 541006, China)
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- Keywords:
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land use change; carbon neutrality; FLUS; scenario simulation; Pingxiang City
- CLC:
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F301.24; X144
- DOI:
-
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- Abstract:
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[Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Pingxiang, to clarify the relationship between land use change and carbon storage, and to provide data support for understanding the carbon storage status of the regional ecosystem. [Methods] The FLUS(future land use simulation)model and the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)model were used to predict the carbon storage values under three different scenarios(natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority)in Pingxiang City in 2030. [Results](1)From 2010 to 2020 the carbon storage in Pingxiang City showed an overall decreasing trend with a total reduction of 1.47×106t.(2)The increase in farmland, construction land, grassland, water bodies, and construction land area, as well as the decrease in forest and shrub area were the main reasons for the changes in carbon storage.(3)In 2030, under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Pingxiang City will be approximately 4.906×107, 4.919×107 and 5.038×107t, respectively, with the least carbon storage loss observed in the ecological priority scenario. [Conclusion] The carbon storage of the Pingxiang ecosystem is declining mainly due to the increase in farmland and construction land. In the future, monitoring and research should be strengthened in key areas of change in Anyuan District and the Economic Development Zone.