[1]Dou Mingyu,Duan Keqin,Shi Peihong,et al.Historical Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of Temperature Changes the Loess Plateau Based on CMIP6 Multimodels[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):158-167.
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Historical Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of Temperature Changes the Loess Plateau Based on CMIP6 Multimodels
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
31
Number of periods:
2024 02
Page number:
158-167
Column:
Public date:
2024-03-20
- Title:
- Historical Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of Temperature Changes the Loess Plateau Based on CMIP6 Multimodels
- Keywords:
- CMIP6; temperature; Loess Plateau; SSP scenario; future period
- CLC:
- P467
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to clarify the future trend and magnitude of temperature increase in the Loess Plateau, and to provide reference for future temperature change decision-making events, flood control and disaster reduction in the Loess Plateau. [Methods] This study was based on the simulation results of 22 Earth-climate system models in the latest sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6). After systematically assessing the simulation capability of each model historical period(1961—2014)through observational data, the multi-model ensemble of 10 models was selected to analyze the temperature change characters in the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs). [Results] The warming rate of the Loess Plateau reaches 0.09℃/decade, 0.28℃/decade,0.48℃/decade and 0.66℃/decade in 2015—2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. By contrast to 1995—2014, the warming reaches 1.53℃, 2.69℃, 3.83℃ and 5.25℃ in 2081—2100, respectively. Except for the SSP1-2.6 emission scenario, the warming in other scenarios has far exceeded the target of limiting global 2℃ warming in the Paris Agreement, and under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario, the warming in 2041—2060 has already reached 2.36℃. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, even the spring, summer, autumn and winter temperatures in the Loess Plateau from 2081 to 2100 vary in the range of 3.83～4.75℃, 4.75～5.67℃, 4.98～5.67℃ and 4.29～5.67℃ compared to 1995—2014. [Conclusion] The Loess Plateau will face a strong warming pressure in the future, with a higher rate of temperature increase under the higher emission scenarios. The observational research on the temperature of the Loess Plateau should be strengthened in the future.
- References:
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Last Update:
2024-04-20