[1]CAO Can,SUN Rui,WU Zhixiang,et al.Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change in Upstream of Nandujiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):255-264.
Copy
Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change in Upstream of Nandujiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
29
Number of periods:
2022 02
Page number:
255-264
Column:
Public date:
2022-03-20
- Title:
- Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change in Upstream of Nandujiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model
- CLC:
- P333
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to assess the impact of future climate change on streamflow of tropical island forest watersheds, taking the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin in Hainan Island as an example, based on the climate change signals extracted from the CMIP6, we established a localized SWAT model to quantitatively analyze the response of streamflow to climate change. The results were summarized as follows:(1)The average annual streamflow in the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin was 16.1 m3/s, and the streamflow in dry and rainy season accounted for 17% and 83% of the annual streamflow, respectively.(2)The average annual streamflow in the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin decreased slightly during 1961—2020. And the streamflow in dry season increased by 4.6%, while the streamflow in rainy season decreased by 9.9%.(3)The increase of streamflow in dry season was much lower than the decrease in rainy season, resulting in the reduced average annual streamflow. The increase of streamflow in dry season was caused by the increase of precipitation, and the intensified evaporation caused by the rising temperature in rainy season was the key factor to the decrease of streamflow.(4)The responses of streamflow to precipitation change were more sensitive than that to temperature. Under the paths of SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370 and SSP585 of CMIP6, the streamflow changes in different periods in the 21st century were mainly affected by precipitation changes. And the enhanced climate change will increase the streamflow variation range in the late 21st century. The streamflow in the study area is more sensitive to precipitation changes than temperature, and precipitation changes will dominate the streamflow changes in the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin in the future.
- References:
-
[1] Arnold J G, Srinivasan R, Muttiah R S, et al. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development[J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998,34(1):73-89.
[2] 刘酌希,陈鑫,管晓祥,等.变化环境下洮河流域径流变化归因[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(5):87-92.
[3] Tian J, Zhang Z, Ahmed Z, et al. Projections of precipitation over China based on CMIP6 models[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2021,35(4):1-18.
[4] 董立俊,董晓华,曾强,等.气候变化条件下雅砻江流域未来径流变化趋势研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(6):596-606.
[5] 唐雄朋,刘艳丽,张建云,等.气候变化下雅鲁藏布江拉孜以上流域径流过程模拟与预测[J].水文,2018,38(6):24-30.
[6] 王迪,刘梅冰,陈兴伟,等.基于CMIP5和SWAT的山美水库流域未来蓝绿水时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2021,19(3):446-458.
[7] 刘启宁,辛卓航,韩建旭,等.变化环境下东北半干旱地区径流演变规律分析:以洮儿河流域为例[J].水力发电学报,2020,39(5):51-63.
[8] 雷金睿,陈宗铸,陈小花,等.1980—2018年海南岛土地利用与生态系统服务价值时空变化[J].生态学报,2020,40(14):4760-4773.
[9] 李龙兵.海南岛水资源可利用量估算[J].水利信息化,2019(6):38-44.
[10] 李瑞娴,李龙兵,李海朋,等.南渡江入海径流量变化及其影响因素[J].水力发电,2015,41(8):13-16.
[11] 吴际伟,纪义彤,朱丽蓉,等.南渡江龙塘站水位流量关系变化及成因分析[J].人民珠江,2018,39(7):37-42.
[12] 陈斌,高飞,印萍,等.南渡江河口洪、枯季节水文泥沙变化特征及台风“海鸥”对入海水沙的影响[J].海洋与湖沼,2015,46(6):1279-1291.
[13] 杨志宏,贾建军,王欣凯,等.近50年海南三大河入海水沙通量特征及变化[J].海洋通报,2013,32(1):92-99.
[14] 邢李桃.重要水源地松涛水库流域管理问题的探讨[J].水文,2009,29(S1):22-23.
[15] 张丽霞,陈晓龙,辛晓歌. CMIP6情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)概况与评述[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(5):519-525.
[16] 陈晓璐,林建海.变化环境下南渡江干流径流特征分析及变化趋势研究[J].人民珠江,2019,40(10):14-20.
[17] 李丽,冉中阳,徐文,等.南渡江河湖水系连通系统仿真与定量评价研究[J].人民黄河,2018,40(10):44-50.
[18] 薛鑫,王瑞峰,叶长青.南渡江流域枯水流量概率特征及成因与影响研究[J].水力发电,2020,46(5):16-21.
[19] Sun R, Wu Z X, Chen B Q, et al. Effects of land-use change on eco-environmental quality in Hainan Island, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2020,109.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105777.
[20] 李立.渭河流域咸阳:西安段非点源污染模拟研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2019.
[21] 奚建梅.基于SWAT模型的黄河源区河流泥沙变化研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古大学,2020.
[22] Teshager A D, Gassman P W, Secchi S, et al. Modeling agricultural watersheds with the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT): Calibration and validation with a novel procedure for spatially explicit HRUs[J]. Environ Manage, 2016,57(4):894-911.
[23] 王赛男.基于SWAT模型的气候变化与土地利用/覆被变化对岩溶断陷盆地水资源量的影响研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2020.
[24] Lü Y R, Jiang T, Wang Y J, et al. Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2020,12(6):389-403.
[25] 梁淑琪,王文圣,黄伟军.1937—2018年岷江上游径流演变特征分析[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2020,50(5):761-770.
[26] 于海超,张扬,马金珠,等.1969—2018年黄河实测径流与天然径流的变化[J].水土保持通报,2020,40(5):7-13.
[27] 商滢,江竹.黄河源区降水径流变化特征及响应分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2021(2):106-112.
[28] 万育生,王栋,黄朝君.丹江口水库来水情势分析与径流预测[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2021,19(3):417-426.
[29] 尚华明,范煜婷,张瑞波,等.帕米尔高原东部径流量变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2021,17(3):352-360.
[30] 赵美亮,曹广超,曹生奎,等.1956—2016年大通河温度和降水及其与径流变化的关系[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(3):111-117,125.
[31] Yachongtou B,梁婕,曾光明,等.基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应[J].水资源与水工程学报,2019,30(2):88-94.
[32] 刘卫林,黄一鹏,万一帆,等.盱江流域径流模拟及其对气候变化的响应[J].水电能源科学,2020,3(8):18-21.
[33] 娄华超,刘瑞芬.东洋河流域土地利用及气候变化对径流的影响[J].人民长江,2020,51(7):82-88.
[34] 王胜,许红梅,刘绿柳,等.全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃对淮河中上游径流影响预估[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(11):1966-1978.
[35] Zhang H, Wang B, Liu L D, et al. Using an improved SWAT model to simulate hydrological responses to land use change: A case study of a catchment in tropical Australia[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2020,585:124822.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124822.
- Similar References:
Memo
-
Last Update:
2022-04-20