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[1]TANG Qi,YU Peiheng,CHEN Zeyi,et al.Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(01):301-310.

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Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 29 Number of periods: 2022 01 Page number: 301-310 Column: Public date: 2022-02-20

Title:: Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author(s):: TANG Qi^1,2, YU Peiheng³, CHEN Zeyi², BAI Shaoyun⁴, CHEN Yiyun^2,5; (1.Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China; 2.School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; 3.Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hongkong Polytechnic University, Hongkong 999077, China; 4.Yunnan Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Kunming 650021, China; 5.Centre of Development Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB39DT, England)

Keywords:: land use change; scenario analysis; shared socioeconomic pathways; future land use simulation; climate change

CLC:: F301; P901

DOI:: -

Abstract:: To address the problem of land use sprawl in lakeside areas on the plateau, we proposed the research framework that combined the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)and future land use simulation(FLUS)model. Then Tonghai County, Huanning County and Jiangchuan District where lakes most densely distribute on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau were selected as the study areas to carry out future land use simulations under different SSPs scenarios. The results show that:(1)the intensive uses of construction land and agricultural land increased under the SSP1 scenario, and a large amount of other land was converted into ecological land, which was the most ideal future development model for the lakeside areas on the plateau;(2)the study area maintained the existing development trend under the SSP2 scenario, and the land use changes developed naturally;(3)SSP3 scenario had a high degree of land use development and change dynamics, which was the scenario to be avoided in future social development;(4)under the SSP4 scenario, the unbalanced development of the study area was serious, the economic growth was slow, and it was difficult to achieve coordinated development with ecology;(5)under the SSP5 scenario, the intensity of land use change in the study area increased firstly, then weakened gradually and reached to a stable state at the cost of a large amount of energy. SSPs can provide the connotation and basis for the parameter setting of land use simulation model. The combination of SSPs and FLUS can provide a decision-making basis for sustainable development of the lakeside area in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The SSPs can provide the parameters for the future land use simulation model. SSPs provide connotation and basis for parameter setting of the model, and the combination of the two can provide decision basis for sustainable development of the lakeshore area in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.

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Last Update: 2022-02-20