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[1]Lyu Bo,Chen Li,Yang Liu,et al.Multi-scenario simulation of future land use and landscape ecological risk analysis based on PLUS model—a case study of Wuding River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(06):361-369.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.035]

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Multi-scenario simulation of future land use and landscape ecological risk analysis based on PLUS model—a case study of Wuding River Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 32 Number of periods: 2025 06 Page number: 361-369 Column: Public date: 2025-10-20

Title:: Multi-scenario simulation of future land use and landscape ecological risk analysis based on PLUS model—a case study of Wuding River Basin

Author(s):: Lyu Bo^1,2,Chen Li^1,2,Yang Liu^1,2,Han Qilong^1,2,Liu Lifeng³,Wang Zhixiong³; (1.School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 211800,China;2.Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Early Warning of Ministry ofWater Resources,Nanjing 211800,China;3.Suide Administration and Supervision Bureau of Soil and Water Conservationof the Yellow River(Suide Soil and Water Conservation Scientific Experimental Station),Suide,Shaanxi 718099,China)

Keywords:: land use; future scenarios; landscape ecological risk; Wuding River Basin; PLUS model

CLC:: P901； X826

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.035

Abstract:: [Objective] This study aims to analyze the changes in land use and landscape patterns in the Wuding River Basin, thereby providing references for future land use planning and ecological protection strategies in the basin. [Methods] The landscape loss model was employed to evaluate regional landscape ecological risk(LER). Using the PLUS model, future land use patterns were simulated in the Wuding River Basin under three scenarios： natural development(ND), ecological protection(EP), and economic development(ED). The land use change trends from 2010 to 2035 were then analyzed, and future LER was predicted. [Results](1) From 2010 to 2020, the areas of grassland, construction land, and forest showed increasing trends, with increased areas of 1 811.56, 67.38, 22.81 km², respectively. Unused land decreased by 1 143.56 km² and farmland by 764.89 km², and water bodies experienced minor changes.(2) From 2025 to 2035, changes in the spatial distribution of land use varied under the three scenarios. Under the ND scenario, grassland and water bodies expanded notably, with increased areas of 314.59, 3.89 km², respectively. Under the EP scenario, grassland and forest increased markedly, covering areas of 245.91, 0.52 km², respectively. Under the ED scenario, forest and grassland increased significantly, covering areas of 228.38, 4.12 km², respectively.(3) The LER in the Wuding River Basin exhibited a spatial pattern of higher risk in the northwest and lower risk in the southeast, with medium-risk zones accounting for 40% of the basin's total area. From 2025 to 2035, under the ND and EP scenarios, LER exhibited a decreasing trend, and the area of medium-risk zones or above would decrease by 355.83, 613.36 km², respectively. Under the ED scenario, LER exhibited an increasing trend, and the area of medium-risk zones or above would increase by 970.02 km². [Conclusion] In the development planning of the Wuding River Basin, prioritized attention should be given to high LER areas such as the northwest, central, and southwest regions. Specifically, soil and water conservation efforts in the northwestern part of the basin should be enhanced.

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Last Update: 2025-12-10