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[1]Xiong Guolai,Wu Xuequn,Yang Minglong,et al.Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of carbon storage in karst regions based on PLUS-InVEST model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(06):307-315,326.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.021]

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Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of carbon storage in karst regions based on PLUS-InVEST model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 32 Number of periods: 2025 06 Page number: 307-315,326 Column: Public date: 2025-10-20

Title:: Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of carbon storage in karst regions based on PLUS-InVEST model

Author(s):: Xiong Guolai,Wu Xuequn,Yang Minglong,Zhang Yunxiang,Yi Dianming; (Faculty of Land and Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China)

Keywords:: carbon storage; multi-scenario simulation; driving factors; PLUS model; InVEST model; karst region

CLC:: X171.1

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.021

Abstract:: [Objective] This study aims to investigate the effect of land use change on carbon storage in the karst region and to quantitatively evaluate the driving mechanisms of carbon storage, thereby providing a theoretical basis for sustainable development of regional ecosystems. [Methods] Using land use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the InVEST-PLUS model and the Geodetector model were employed to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and carbon storage, as well as their driving factors, in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under both historical and future scenarios. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage in southeastern Yunnan showed an overall decreasing trend, with a total reduction of 1.3×10⁶ t. The spatial variation in carbon storage remained relatively stable, with higher values in the western and eastern regions and lower values in the northwestern, southern, and southeastern regions.(2) NDVI was identified as the key driving factor of the spatiotemporal differentiation in carbon storage. There were nonlinear and bifactorenhanced interaction effects among all factors.(3) By 2030, carbon storage was projected to decrease by 1.0×10⁶ t, 9.0×10⁵ t, and 4.0×10⁵ t under scenarios of natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection, respectively, compared to 2020. The ecological protection scenario showed the smallest decline, indicating that ecological protection measures had a positive effect on mitigating carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] The declining trend of carbon storage in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan shows strong correlation with land use change. In the future, it is necessary to strictly control the occupation of ecological lands such as forests and grasslands for construction use, and develop scientifically sound land use plans to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of ecological protection and economic growth.

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Last Update: 2025-12-10