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[1]Tu Xiao,Zhong Taiyang.Evaluation of implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring based on explainable machine learning[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(06):216-224.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.008]

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Evaluation of implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring based on explainable machine learning

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 32 Number of periods: 2025 06 Page number: 216-224 Column: Public date: 2025-10-20

Title:: Evaluation of implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring based on explainable machine learning

Author(s):: Tu Xiao,Zhong Taiyang; (School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

Keywords:: protection; policy evaluation; interpretable machine learning; regional heterogeneity

CLC:: P963

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.008

Abstract:: [Objective] Satellite monitoring of farmland mainly includes satellite imagery monitoring and subsequent investigation and remediation. Evaluating the implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring aims to explore its impact on farmland protection and provide references for improving the natural resources regulatory system. [Methods] The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) and Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP) methods were used to identify the main factors influencing the farmland area change rate and their impact magnitude in 31 provincial-level administrative regions from 2015 to 2021. The feature values of farmland area change rates and SHAP values in each provincial-level administrative region were fitted to evaluate their linear relationships, and regional heterogeneity of the implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring were analyzed. [Results] (1) The implementation duration of farmland satellite monitoring was significantly positively correlated with the farmland change rate, indicating that this measure effectively reduced farmland loss. (2) The investigation and remediation of farmland outflow had a positive effect on farmland protection, with importance higher than the implementation duration of farmland satellite monitoring, confirming that the remediation efforts after the occurrence of farmland problematic spots was crucial.(3) The implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring showed regional heterogeneity： the farmland protection effect was better in eastern regions such as Hebei Province, Shandong Province, and Jiangsu Province, while the protection effect of investigation and remediation of farmland outflow was more significant in central and western regions such as Guizhou Province, Chongqing Municipality, and Shaanxi Province. [Conclusion] Farmland satellite monitoring, combined with annual investigation and remediation of farmland outflow, establishes a “monitoring, investigating, remedying, replenishing” regulatory system. It has played a positive role in discovering and curbing farmland loss, as well as remedying and restoring lost farmland. However, due to differences in policy implementation time across regions, the implementation effectiveness have not been fully realized yet.

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Last Update: 2025-12-10