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[1]Zhang Jihong,Yao Zhenghong,Li Junjie,et al.Study on the Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Change in Subtropical River Headwater[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(06):55-66,73.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.017]

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Study on the Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Change in Subtropical River Headwater

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 06 Page number: 55-66,73 Column: Public date: 2024-12-10

Title:: Study on the Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Change in Subtropical River Headwater

Author(s):: Zhang Jihong^1,2, Yao Zhenghong^1,2, Li Junjie^1,4, Wan Wei^3,4, Zhu Jinqi^3,4, Zheng Bofu^1,3,4; (1.School of Infrastructure Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; 2.Geophysical & Geochemical Exploration Brigade of Jiangxi, Nanchang 330009, China; 3.School of Resources & Environment, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; 4.Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resources Utilization, Ministry of Education/Jiangxi Institute of Ecological Civilization, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330031, China)

Keywords:: subtropical river headwaters; runoff; land use change; climate change; SWAT model; Taojiang River Basin

CLC:: K903; P343

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.017

Abstract:: [Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the runoff changes in the subtropical river headwaters under different scenarios, to provide decision-making basis for the comprehensive management and regulation of water resources in the basin and the development and utilization of water resources, and to provide scientific reference for the ecological security guarantee in the subtropical river headwaters. [Methods]Taojiang River Basin, the main source area of the Ganjiang River, was taken as the research area. SWAT model was constructed. The model was calibrated and validated by using meteorological and precipitation data from 2000 to 2019, and then the runoff response characteristics under different land use and climate change and their combination scenarios were simulated. [Results]SWAT model has good applicability to the Taojiang River Basin, and the fitting effect between simulated runoff and measured runoff is good. The runoff capacity under the construction and development scenario is the strongest, and the runoff capacity under the ecological protection scenario is the weakest. There are obvious differences in runoff capacity in different seasons. The runoff capacity of each scenario in the wet season is quite different, while the difference of surface runoff in different scenarios in the dry season is small. In the 15 climate change scenarios, the runoff is positively correlated with precipitation(p<0.01)and negatively correlated with temperature. Compared with the change of temperature, the change of precipitation has a greater impact on the runoff flow in Taojiang River Basin, which is the main influencing factor on runoff change. The average annual runoff under L₁&C₅ scenario(cultivated land expansion scenario, temperature unchanged, precipitation increased by 20%)is the largest, reaching 267.15 m³/s. [Conclusion]In this study, land use has a weak impact on runoff change, and climate factors play a major role in runoff change in Taojiang River Basin.

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Last Update: 2024-12-10