[1]Chen Hongtao,Mu Xianyou,Luo Hongchun,et al.Analysis and Prediction of Runoff and Sediment Flux Characteristics at the Toudaoguai Hydrological Station of the Yellow River from 1958 to 2022[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(06):11-21.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.010]
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Analysis and Prediction of Runoff and Sediment Flux Characteristics at the Toudaoguai Hydrological Station of the Yellow River from 1958 to 2022
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
31
Number of periods:
2024 06
Page number:
11-21
Column:
Public date:
2024-12-10
- Title:
- Analysis and Prediction of Runoff and Sediment Flux Characteristics at the Toudaoguai Hydrological Station of the Yellow River from 1958 to 2022
- Keywords:
- runoff and sediment flux evolution; non-parametric test; CEEMDAN; runoff and sediment flux model; Toudaoguai hydrological station
- CLC:
- S157.1; P338
- DOI:
- 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.010
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the evolution characteristics of runoff and sediment flux at the Toudaoguai hydrology station of the Yellow River, and to provide theoretical basis for rational planning of regional water resources. [Methods]Based on the runoff and sediment flux data from 1958 to 2022, non-parametric testing methods and the CEEMDAN method were adopted to study the trends, abrupt changes, and periodic variations in runoff and sediment flux at the Toudaoguai hydrological station. Furthermore, an Informer prediction model was constructed by using monthly runoff and sediment flux data. [Results](1)The M-K statistics for annual runoff and annual sediment flux are -3.380 and -5.067, respectively. The annual runoff and sediment flux experienced abrupt changes in 1986, 1968 and 1986, with decline rates of 36%, 44.38% and 61.32%, respectively.(2)After decomposing the annual runoff and sediment flux sequences using the CEEMDAN method, three IMF components and one RES component were obtained for both sequences. The average periods of the three IMF components in the runoff and sediment flux sequences were 3.69 years, 7.67 years, 30 years and 3.41 years, 7.5 years, 26 years, respectively. The decomposition of the monthly runoff and sediment flux yielded 7 IMF components, with short periods of 3.46 months and 3.61 months, long periods of 226.33 months and 184.50 months, and dominant periods of 7.25 months and 8.09 months.(3)After constructing the model, it was found that the prediction accuracy for runoff was higher than that for sediment flux. This is because that sediment flux is influenced by numerous factors and exhibits a more extensive range of variation, making it more challenging to predict than runoff. [Conclusion]There is a significant downward trend in runoff and sediment flux at the Yellow River Toudaoguai hydrological station, which is mainly attributed to the influence of precipitation, and the abrupt change points in the sequences closely related to the construction of upstream reservoirs.
- References:
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Last Update:
2024-12-10