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[1]Zhuang Qiuyu,Cui Yanxin,Zhang Yuhu,et al.Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(06):1-10.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.035]

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Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 06 Page number: 1-10 Column: Public date: 2024-12-10

Title:: Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model

Author(s):: Zhuang Qiuyu, Cui Yanxin, Zhang Yuhu, Pu Xiao; (College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China)

Keywords:: SWAT model; climate change; land use change; runoff and total phosphorus; Ulungu River Basin

CLC:: P333; P467; X52

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.035

Abstract:: [Objective]The aims of this study are to quantitatively explore the effects of climate and land use changes on runoff and total phosphorus loading, and to provide scientific references for the future rational development and utilization of soil and water resources as well as the prevention and control of water pollution in the Ulungu River Basin in Xinjiang. [Methods]Runoff and total phosphorus loads from the watershed under changing environments were predicted by using the SWAT distributed hydrological model and setting up six different change scenarios using scenario analysis. [Results]The coefficients of determination R² and Nash coefficient E_ns of runoff and total phosphorus in the rate period and validation period reached more than 0.75, and the established SWAT model had good applicability in the simulation of runoff and total phosphorus loading changes in the Ulungu River Basin. The combined effects of climate and land use change increase runoff volume by 0.22 m³/s and 5.14 m³/s, respectively, and the average annual total phosphorus load decreases by 894.5 t under the S₄ scenario and increases by 7.41 t under the S₅ scenario. As for the impact of climate change, runoff was positively correlated with precipitation changes, which was the main driver of runoff changes in the Ulungur River Basin, while total phosphorus loads were positively correlated with both temperature and precipitation changes, but the effect of precipitation on total phosphorus loads was more significant. As for the impact of land use change, both runoff and total phosphorus were negatively correlated with land use change, and land use change was one of the main influencing factors for the increase of total phosphorus load. [Conclusion]Climate and land use changes have contributed to and inhibited runoff and total phosphorus loading in the Ulungu River Basin in Xinjiang. The impacts of climate and land use changes need to be taken into account in the formulation of policies when facing the problems of increased precipitation and water pollution in the future.

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Last Update: 2024-12-10