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[1]Long Yuannan,Zhang Yulin,Jiang Changbo,et al.Study on Runoff Response of Zishui Basin Under Climate Change Based on CMIP6[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):114-125.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.010]

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Study on Runoff Response of Zishui Basin Under Climate Change Based on CMIP6

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 04 Page number: 114-125 Column: Public date: 2024-06-30

Title:: Study on Runoff Response of Zishui Basin Under Climate Change Based on CMIP6

Author(s):: Long Yuannan^1,2, Zhang Yulin³, Jiang Changbo^1,2, Mo Juncheng³, Huang Chunfu^1,2, Song Xinyi^1,2; (1.School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province, Changsha 410114, China; 3.Hunan Water Resources & Hydropower Survey, Design, Planning and Research Co., Ltd., Changsha 410007, China)

Keywords:: CMIP6; climate change; runoff response; Zishui Basin; SDSM model; SWAT model

CLC:: P333.1; P467

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.010

Abstract:: [Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the runoff response of Zishui Basin under future climate change scenarios, and to provide scientific support for the sustainable development of the basin and the decision-making of flood control and drought control. [Methods]Based on three CMIP6 global climate models, the SDSM downscaling model and SWAT hydrological model were constructed to predict the changes of temperature and precipitation in the Zishui Basin during 2030—2089 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, and to further explore the response of runoff to climate change. [Results]Zishui Basin will present a significant warming and humidification trend in the future, and this trend will increase with the increase of discharge scenario. Spatially, the temperature rise of the whole basin is the largest in the vicinity of Xinning and Shaoyang stations. The increasing areas of precipitation mainly concentrate in the middle and lower reaches with Lengshuijiang as the center, while the decreasing area is located west of Dongkou station. In this context, the future annual runoff of Taojiang station and Shaoyang station will have the same variation trend with the watershed precipitation, and the amount of available water resources in the upstream area above Shaoyang station is more likely to decrease. Water resources in the basin will face the risk of more shortage in the dry season, and the flood season tends to advance, and the evenness of water resources allocation in the main flood season will increase. [Conclusion]Under the background of climate warming and humidification, the management of water resources in Zishui Basin will encounter more severe challenges, and the protection of water resources and the integrated management of Zishui Basin should be strengthened.

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Last Update: 2024-06-30