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[1]Zhang Zelin,Zhou Xia,Zhou Yuxi.Spatiotemporal Coupling and Driving Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Grain Production Resilience in the Lower Reaches of Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):412-420,431.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.003]

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Spatiotemporal Coupling and Driving Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Grain Production Resilience in the Lower Reaches of Yellow River

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 03 Page number: 412-420,431 Column: Public date: 2024-04-30

Title:: Spatiotemporal Coupling and Driving Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Grain Production Resilience in the Lower Reaches of Yellow River

Author(s):: Zhang Zelin, Zhou Xia, Zhou Yuxi; (School of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian, Shandong 271028, China)

Keywords:: lower reaches of the Yellow River; water resources protection; food security; coupling coordination degree; geographic detector

CLC:: F323.21

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.003

Abstract:: [Objective] The aims of this study are to explore the coordinated development level of water resources carrying capacity and grain production resilience in the lower Yellow River, and to provide a new policy perspective for promoting the coordinated development of water resources protection and utilization and grain production. [Methods] Based on the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness, the index of water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during 2010—2021 was estimated by entropy weight method, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of their coordinated development were analyzed by coupling coordination degree model and kernel density estimation. At the same time, the dominant factors and interaction factors affecting the coupling coordination degree of the two were explored by means of geographic detectors. [Results] In time dimension, the coupling coordination degree between water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness increased from 0.484 0 to 0.747 6, and the coupling coordination type increased from near imbalance to intermediate coordination. In terms of spatial dimension, the highest value of the coupling coordination degree between the two was found in Jinan, Shandong Province, and the lowest value concentrated in Henan Province. Annual precipitation, residential water consumption, urban green area, cultivated land area and financial support to agriculture were the main driving factors on the coordinated development of the two, and the explanatory power of the interaction of the leading factors showed the characteristics of double factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. [Conclusion] The coupling coordination degree of water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness in the lower reaches of the Yellow River increased year by year and gradually showed a spatial distribution of high level in the east and low level in the west. At the same time, the development of the two systems was increasingly close, and the interaction was gradually enhanced.

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Last Update: 2024-04-30