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[1]Hu Bingqing,Li Wenbo,Zhu Yuanli.Estimating Carbon Sequestration Potential and Sinking Pattern Under Multi-level Fallowing Scenarios in Central Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):230-238,246.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.047]

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Estimating Carbon Sequestration Potential and Sinking Pattern Under Multi-level Fallowing Scenarios in Central Jilin Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 03 Page number: 230-238,246 Column: Public date: 2024-04-30

Title:: Estimating Carbon Sequestration Potential and Sinking Pattern Under Multi-level Fallowing Scenarios in Central Jilin Province

Author(s):: Hu Bingqing¹, Li Wenbo², Zhu Yuanli³; (1.College of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China; 2.School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China; 3.School of Public Policy and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China)

Keywords:: ecological fallowing; carbon stock; InVEST model; carbon sinks

CLC:: F323.2; X16

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.047

Abstract:: [Objective] In an attempt to increase carbon stock in the agricultural sector, the marginalized and unstable lands were identified as the fallow plots, carbon sinks due to ecological fallowing under future multi-gradient fallowing scenarios were explored to provide an crucial basis for arranging the fallow of marginalised cropland and enriching the theory of carbon sequestration in the northeast black soil region. [Methods] Based on the 2005 and 2020 land use data in the central black soil area of Jilin Province, a multi-gradient fallow scenario was simulated by the PLUS-Markov coupled model and the InVEST model, and the carbon stock and the potential for carbon sequestration and sink enhancement due to ecological fallow in the study area were measured. [Results](1)The natural development scenario and three fallowing scenarios A, B, and C with increasing intensity were set in this study. The marginal unstable farmland fallow in scenarios A, B, and C were 1.5×10⁴ hm², 2.65×10⁴ hm², and 3.8×10⁴ hm², respectively. These scenarios were mainly driven by socio-economic factors, accounting for about 30% of the total contribution. In terms of fallow types, the returning-to-forest areas widely distributed, mainly concentrated in the places such as Siping, Dongliao, and Changchun, while the returning-to-grass areas were smaller but exhibited spatial aggregation features, which were mainly located in the places such as Shuangliao and Nong'an.(2)As the simulated fallow intensity increased, the carbon stock in the study area also indicated an increasing trend. Under fallow scenarios A, B, and C, the estimated carbon storage would reach up to 7.26×10⁶ Mg,7.27×10⁶ Mg和7.27×10⁶ Mg, respectively, which decreased from the southeast and the northwest. The areas with high carbon sinks concentrated mainly in areas such as Shulan, Yongji, and Huadian.(3)Under different fallow scenarios, the carbon sink pattern in the study area remained stable, mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern parts. Considering the factors of food security and agricultural carbon sequestration demand, it is recommended to refer to the fallowing scenario B, and Siping, Dongliao, and Changchun will become the key agricultural carbon sink units in the black soil area of central Jilin Province. It is estimated that carbon stock will increase to 1963.4 Mg,806.48 Mg and 703.06 Mg, respectively. [Conclusion] The carbon stock increase from the agricultural sector in the black soil region of central Jilin Province depends on the fallow of marginalized croplands in a rolling hilly region. The productivity and the ecological effects arising from cropland use should be balanced in the layout and priority of the fallow projects. Meanwhile, the food production capacity needs to be adjusted in conjunction with comprehensive land reclamation in the entire region in order to achieve the aims of improving the spatial suitability of cropland and the sustainability of the agricultural system in the black soil area.

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Last Update: 2024-04-30