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[1]Zhao Qichen,Yu Dun,Wang Jianping.Spatial and Temporal Evolution, Influencing Factors and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Land Use in Jiujiang City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(06):441-451.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.004]

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Spatial and Temporal Evolution, Influencing Factors and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Land Use in Jiujiang City

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 06 Page number: 441-451 Column: Public date: 2023-10-10

Title:: Spatial and Temporal Evolution, Influencing Factors and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Land Use in Jiujiang City

Author(s):: Zhao Qichen, Yu Dun, Wang Jianping; (College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China)

Keywords:: agricultural land use; carbon emissions; Jiujiang City

CLC:: F323.2; X16

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.004

Abstract:: [Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City, explore its influencing factors and future trends, and then provide theoretical basis and data support for promoting low-carbon agricultural development. [Methods] Taking Jiujiang City as an example, we measured carbon emissions from agricultural land use from 2006 to 2020 based on five types of carbon emission sources: agricultural material inputs, paddy cultivation, agricultural soil use, livestock and poultry enteric fermentation and livestock and poultry manure management, analyzed its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, explored the influencing factors using LMDI model, and predicted the change trend from 2021 to 2025 using ARIMA model. [Results](1)The carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City showed a trend of fluctuating increase and then continuous decrease, the carbon emission intensity increased in 2018 and continued to decrease in the rest of the years, and the contribution of each carbon emission source followed the order: paddy cultivation>agricultural material input>agricultural soil use>livestock and poultry manure management>livestock and poultry enteric fermentation.(2)During the study period, the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in all counties showed a trend of six up and five down. The carbon emission intensity of all counties decreased significantly, and the decrease was higher than 50%. The kernel density curve of carbon emissions shifted to the right and leveled off, and the polarization effect weakened.(3)The level of agricultural economy had a facilitating effect on carbon emissions from agricultural land use, while agricultural production efficiency, industry structure and labor scale had a suppressive effect, with different influencing factors in different counties.(4)The trend prediction results showed that carbon emissions from agricultural land use in eight counties, including Yongxiu County and Duchang County, reached to the peak by 2020, and carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Xiushui County, De'an County and Gongqingcheng City show an increasing trend from 2021 to 2025. [Conclusion] The carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang need to be further reduced, and the carbon emission reduction from agricultural land use should be steadily promoted in the future under the premise of ensuring food security according to local conditions.

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Last Update: 2023-10-10