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[1]LI Xiehui,LIU Zitang.Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Temperature Events in Sichuan Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(01):264-273.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.012]

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Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Temperature Events in Sichuan Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 01 Page number: 264-273 Column: Public date: 2023-01-10

Title:: Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Temperature Events in Sichuan Basin

Author(s):: LI Xiehui¹, LIU Zitang^1,2; (1.Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China; 2.Shihezi Weather Modification Office, Shehezi, Xinjiang 832000, China)

Keywords:: extreme precipitation index; spatiotemporal change characteristics; mutation test; Hurst index; Sichuan Basin

CLC:: P467

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.012

Abstract:: Extreme temperature event is one of the main manifestations of global warming. Its occurrence not only restricts the development of national economy, but also poses a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and property. In order to understand the past spatiotemporal variation characteristics and future variation trends of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Basin, based on the daily temperature data of 14 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin from 1970 to 2019, by selecting and calculating 10 extreme temperature indices, and carrying out linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test, sliding T test, correlation analysis with geographical factors and R/S prediction, we mainly analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and future trend of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Basin in recent 50 years. The results showed that:(1)in recent 50 years, the extreme temperature index of Sichuan Basin showed a warming trend, which was a positive response area to global warming.(2)the five extreme cold indices were higher in the northern and western parts of the basin than in the southern and central-eastern regions; the five extreme cold indices of Wenjiang and Dujiangyan areas in Sichuan Province were generally lower, and the five extreme warm indices were higher in the central and eastern parts of the basin than in the western and northern regions; the five extreme warm indices of Wanzhou and Shapingba areas in Chongqing were generally higher.(3)the extreme temperature in Sichuan Basin had not changed significantly in recent 50 years.(4)the extreme temperature index was related to geographical factors; the greater the longitude, the lower the latitude and the lower the altitude, the greater the change of extreme temperature index, which was reflected in the maximum change of extreme temperature events in the southeast of the basin.(5)the R/S analysis showed that cold events will decrease in the Sichuan Basin, warm events will increase, and extreme temperature events will continue to show an increasing trend in the future. To sum up, the continuous increase of extreme warm events will lead to an increase in droughts and high-temperature disastrous weather in the Sichuan Basin, and early warning and prevention are required.

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Last Update: 2023-01-10