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[1]LI Shifeng,HONG Zenglin,XUE Xuping,et al.Multi-Scenario Simulation of LUCC in Binzhou City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Coupling Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):292-299.

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Multi-Scenario Simulation of LUCC in Binzhou City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Coupling Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 29 Number of periods: 2022 04 Page number: 292-299 Column: Public date: 2022-06-20

Title:: Multi-Scenario Simulation of LUCC in Binzhou City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Coupling Model

Author(s):: LI Shifeng¹, HONG Zenglin^1,2, XUE Xuping², ZHANG Fengjun³, SHI Wei³; (1.School of Land Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China; 2.Shaanxi Geological Survey Institute, Xi'an 710054, China; 3.Shaanxi Hydrogeology Engineering Geology and Environment Geology Survey Center, Xi'an 710068, China)

Keywords:: LUCC; Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model; driving factor; multi-scenario simulation; Binzhou City

CLC:: F301.2

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The multi-scenario simulation of land use change can provide a scientific reference for regional land planning, ecological city construction and regional ecological environmental protection. Based on the land use data of Binzhou City in 2009 and 2019, the spatial analysis function of GIS software and the dynamic model of land use were used to analyze the land use changes in the study area in time and space. Seven driving factors were selected from natural factors and socio-economic factors for regression analysis using Logistic model, and then the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model was used to simulate the land use change in 2019 and verify the accuracy of the prediction results based on the 2009 land use data in the study area. Finally, based on the basic data of 2019, the spatial pattern of land use types in the study area in 2029 was predicted under the three scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and restriction of urban overdevelopment. The results show that the comprehensive dynamic degree of land use in the study area in the past 10 years was 5.57%, and the land use had changed significantly; the regression analysis of driving factors passed the validity test, and predicted that the Kappa coefficient value of land use change in 2019 was 0.761 2, and the prediction result is credible; under the natural development scenario, the area of construction land in Binzhou City will increase by 40.54% in 2029, and the area of cultivated land and water area will decrease by 27.31% and 3.84%, respectively, which may threaten the ecological balance of the study area; under the two scenarios of ecological protection and restricting urban overdevelopment, the area of construction land is controlled, and the ecological land such as water area and cultivated land is protected, which is conducive to the sustainable development of Binzhou City.

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Last Update: 2022-06-20