[1]LI Jingfang,PENG Tao,DONG Xiaohua,et al.Hydrological Drought Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on Copula Function[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(03):179-188.
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Hydrological Drought Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on Copula Function
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
29
Number of periods:
2022 03
Page number:
179-188
Column:
Public date:
2022-04-20
- Title:
- Hydrological Drought Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on Copula Function
- Keywords:
- hydrological drought; standardized runoff index; Copula function; run theory; return period; Hanjiang River Basin
- CLC:
- P333.3
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The study on the risk and driving factors of hydrological drought in the Hanjiang River Basin can provide reference for regional drought warning and water resources management. The monthly runoff data from 1964—2016 at Baihe, Huangjiagang and Shayang stations in the Hanjiang River Basin were selected, and the standardized runoff index(SRI)was used for hydrological drought analysis. Drought characteristic variables were identified based on the run theory. The joint cumulative probability between the drought characteristic variables was calculated by using Copula function, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period were analyzed. The results showed that:(1)from 1964 to 2016, there were 54 drought events at Baihe station, indicating that the droughts were frequent but mild; there were 34 and 32 drought events at Huangjiagang and Shayang stations, respectively, indicating that the droughts were relatively less frequent but more severe; the drought situation in the Hanjiang River Basin showed an aggravating trend from upstream to downstream;(2)with the increase of the value of drought characteristic variables, the joint cumulative probability value also increased, but the increasing trend was slow;(3)the bivariate return period increased with the increase of univariate return period, but the increase of co-occurrence return period was significantly higher than that of joint return period under the same increase condition;(4)at Baihe station, when the drought duration and severity reached the maximum, the joint return period of the drought event was approximately 50 years, and the co-occurrence return period was about 1600 years; the same phenomena were found at Huangjiagang and Shayang stations;(5)human activities have been the main cause for runoff reduction in the Hanjiang River Basin since 1991, contributing 59.6% and 69.2% to runoff change at Baihe and Shayang stations, respectively, indicating that they are the dominant factors for the aggravation of hydrological drought in this basin. The results show that the droughts in the lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin are heavier than those in the upper reaches and are continuously affected by human activities. Therefore, the ability to cope with regional drought risk should be enhanced under the changing environment.
- References:
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Last Update:
2022-04-20