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[1]ZHANG Lang,HE Zhonghua,XIA Chuanhua,et al.Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought on Multi-Scale and Their Probability Analysis Based on the Time-Varying Copula Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(06):115-125.

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Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought on Multi-Scale and Their Probability Analysis Based on the Time-Varying Copula Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 28 Number of periods: 2021 06 Page number: 115-125 Column: Public date: 2021-10-10

Title:: Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought on Multi-Scale and Their Probability Analysis Based on the Time-Varying Copula Model

Author(s):: ZHANG Lang¹，HE Zhonghua^1,2,3，XIA Chuanhua¹，REN Rongyi¹; (1.Shcool of Geographic and Environmental Sciences，Guizhou Normal University，Guiyang 550001，China; 2.National Karst Rocky Desertification Prevention Engineering Technology Research Center，Guizhou Normal University，Guiyang 550001，China; 3.Guizhou Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Application of Mountain Resources and Environment，Guiyang 550001，China)

Keywords:: meteorological drought; hydrological drought; joint probability; conditional probability; time-varying Copula function

CLC:: P426

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In order to understand the characteristics of regional meteorological drought and hydrological drought and their probability distribution，based on the time-varying Copula model，a joint model for the meteorological and hydrological data of the Qianzhong Water Conservancy Engineering Area from 1960 to 2016 was established，and the characteristics of regional hydrological drought and meteorological drought on multi-scale were deeply analyzed. The characteristics of joint probability of drought and conditional probability were discussed. The results show that:(1)meteorological drought occurs frequently in the project area，but the overall drought degree is low; the characteristics of combined drought on multi-scale are generally similar and have a strong correlation; the combined characteristic value of drought on multi-scale decreases in the order: 6 months>9 months>12 months>3 months;(2)the degree of regional hydrological drought has gradually increased，and the frequency of drought has gradually increased; it mainly distributed in the late 1980s and after entering the 21st century; the combined characteristic values of drought on multi-scale are generally low，and high frequency and deep severity occur on a 3-month scale; hydrological drought is the most likely，and the smallest is 6-month scale;(3)the combined characteristics of drought in the four research scales all show obvious similarities，and the drought index shows the strongest correlation between 6-month SPI and 12-month Ra; the joint probability of regional drought at the end of the 1980s and after entering the 21st century is high. There are many meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region，and the degree of drought is heavier and the frequency is high; the conditional probability is generally on the rise，indicating that the probability of subsequent occurrence of hydrological drought after meteorological drought is increasing.

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Last Update: 2021-10-10