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[1]GAO Bin,XIAO Weihua,LU Fan,et al.Analysis of Rainfall Non-stationary in the Main Flood Season in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on GAMLSS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):152-158.

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Analysis of Rainfall Non-stationary in the Main Flood Season in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on GAMLSS Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 28 Number of periods: 2021 05 Page number: 152-158 Column: Public date: 2021-08-20

Title:: Analysis of Rainfall Non-stationary in the Main Flood Season in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on GAMLSS Model

Author(s):: GAO Bin¹,XIAO Weihua¹,LU Fan¹,CUI Hao¹,HOU Baodeng¹,ZHANG Xingna²,YANG Heng^1,3; (1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China; 2.School of Computer and Information Technology,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China; 3.Institute of Science and Technology,China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China)

Keywords:: rainfall during the main flood season; Three Gorges Reservoir area; non-stationary; GAMLSS model; temperature

CLC:: P333

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The GAMLSS model was used to study the non-stationary of rainfall during the main flood season(P_mfs)at 12 stations in the Three Gorges Reservoir area; time t and four types of temperature(annual average temperature T_ave,annual average maximum temperature T_max,annual average minimum temperature T_min and annual average temperature difference ΔT)were taken as the covariates so as to provide the basis for flood control,drought resistance,and water conservancy project safety assessment under changing circumstances. The results are shown as follows.(1)With t being taken as a covariate for fitting,50% of the sites shows inconsistent characteristics. The mean value of P_mfs in Zigui area at the head of the reservoir and Shapingba area at the end of the reservoir are increasing(the growth rate in Zigui area reaches 29.6 mm/decade),while the variance of P_mfs in the Jiangjin area at the end of the reservoir is constantly increasing,which indicates that these areas may cause natural disasters such as floods,landslides,and droughts in the future.(2)While the temperature is used as the covariate to fit,P_mfs of each site in the reservoir area shows non-stationary,and the fitting effect of the model is better than that of the former on the whole and is of physical significance at the same time. While T_ave is used as the covariate at the head of the reservoir,the model fitting effect is the best; while ΔT is generally taken as the covariate at the middle and the end of the reservoir,the fitting effect is the best. In addition,the mean value of P_mfs in Zigui area at the head of the reservoir had a sudden change in the mean value around 1998. The mean value changed abruptly from 480 mm to about 580 mm,which might be due to the changes of T_ave caused by human activities or climate change; the variance of P_mfs in Jiangjin area at the end of the reservoir gradually increases,and the risk is the same as the fitting result with t as the covariate.

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Last Update: 2021-08-20