[1]ZHAO Yanxi,XIAO Dengpan,TANG Jianzhao,et al.Effects of Climate Change on the Yield of Major Grain Crops and Its Adaptation Measures in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(06):317-326.
Copy

Effects of Climate Change on the Yield of Major Grain Crops and Its Adaptation Measures in China

References:
[1] Godfray H C J, Beddington J R, Crute I R, et al. Food security:the challenge of feeding 9 billion people[J]. Science, 2010,327(5967):812-818.
[2] IPCC. Climate Change 2007:the Physical Science Basis[M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[3] Gilgen H, Wild M, Ohmura A. Means and trends of shortwave irradiance at the surface estimated from global energy balance archive data[J]. Journal of Climate, 1998,11(8):2042-2061.
[4] Stanhill G, Cohen S. Global dimming:A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences[J]. Agricultural & Forest Meteorology, 2001,107(4):255-278.
[5] Liepert B G. Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002,29(10), DOI:10.1029/2002GL014910.
[6] Wild M, Gilgen H, Roesch A, et al. From dimming to brightening:Decadal changes in solar radiation at earth’s surface[J]. Science, 2005,308(5723):847-850.
[7] Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2006,111(D5):1042-1063.
[8] Shi W J, Tao F L, Zhang Z, et al. A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2013,23(3):567-576.
[9] Porter J R, Xie L, Challinor A J, et al. Food security and food production systems[M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[10] Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2015,5(2):37-64.
[11] Tao F L, Zhang Z, Zhang S, et al. Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades[J]. European Journal of Agronomy, 2015,71:44-52.
[12] Schlenker W, Roberts M J. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U. S. crop yields under climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009,106(37):15594-15598.
[13] Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy J E, et al. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2004,101(27):9971-9975.
[14] Lobell D B, Burke M B, Tebaldi C, et al. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5863):607-610.
[15] Liu B, Asseng S, Müller C, et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2016,6(12):1130-1136.
[16] Chmielewski F M, Potts J M. The relationship between crop yields from an experiment in southern England and long-term climate variations[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1995,73(1/2):43-66.
[17] Nicholls N. Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends[J]. Nature, 1997,387(6632):484-485.
[18] Lobell D B. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007,145(3):229-238.
[19] Lobell D B, Schlenker W, Costaroberts J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J]. Science, 2011,333(6042):616-620.
[20] Lobell D B, Asner G. Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U. S. agricultural yields[J]. Science, 2003,299(5609):1032.
[21] Lobell D. Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961[J]. Global Change Biology, 2010,14(1):39-45.
[22] Müller C, Bondeau A, Popp A, et al. Climate change impacts on agricultural yields[J]. Washington DC World Bank, 2010,102(3/4):435-466.
[23] Mcgrath J M, Lobell D B. Regional disparities in the CO2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2013,8(1), DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014054
[24] Wang J, Wang E L, Luo Q Y, et al. Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia[J]. Climatic Change, 2009,96(1):79-96.
[25] Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, et al. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006,138(1):82-92.
[26] You L Z, Rosegrant M W, Wood S, et al. Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009,149(6):1009-1014.
[27] Zhang T Y, Huang Y. Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008[J]. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 2012,92(8):1643-1652.
[28] Tao F L, Zhang Z, Xiao D P, et al. Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981-2009[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2014,189:91-104.
[29] Hou R, Ouyang Z, Li Y, et al. Is the change of winter wheat yield under warming caused by shortened reproductive period[J]. Ecology & Evolution, 2012,2(12):2999-3008.
[30] Zheng Y P, Guo L, Hou R, et al. Experimental warming enhances the carbon gain but does not affect the yield of maize (Zea mays L.) in the North China Plain[J]. Flora, 2018,240(1):152-163.
[31] Harte J, Torn M S, Chang F R, et al. Global warming and soil microclimate:Results from a meadow-warming experiment[J]. Ecological Applications, 1995,5(1):132-150.
[32] 田云录,郑建初,张彬,等.麦田开放式昼夜不同增温系统的设计及增温效果[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(18):3724-3731.
[33] 肖国举,仇正跻,张峰举,等.增温对西北半干旱区马铃薯产量和品质的影响[J].生态学报,2015,35(3):830-836.
[34] 韩晓增,乔云发,张秋英,等.不同土壤水分条件对大豆产量的影响[J].大豆科学,2003,22(4):269-272.
[35] 王鹤龄,张强,王润元,等.增温和降水变化对西北半干旱区春小麦产量和品质的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1):67-75.
[36] 郑有飞,胡会芳,吴荣军,等.地表太阳辐射减弱和臭氧浓度增加对冬小麦生长和产量的影响[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):532-541.
[37] Cai C, Yin X, He S, et al. Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments[J]. Global Change Biology, 2016,22(2):856-874.
[38] Lobell D B, Burke M B. On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010,150(11):1443-1452.
[39] 马雅丽,王志伟,栾青,等.玉米产量与生态气候因子的关系[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):565-568.
[40] 尹东,柯晓新.甘肃省夏粮气候产量变化特征的因子分析[J].中国农业气象,2000,21(3):11-14.
[41] Lobell D B, Ortizmonasterio J I, Asner G P, et al. Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico[J]. Field Crops Research, 2005,94(2):250-256.
[42] Lobell D B, Field C B. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2007, 2(1), DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002.
[43] Schlenker W, Lobell D B. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2010, 5(1), DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010.
[44] 杨靖民,杨靖一,姜旭,等.作物模型研究进展[J].吉林农业大学学报,2012,34(5):553-561.
[45] Xiao D P, Cao J S, Bai H Z, et al. Assessing the impacts of climate variables and sowing date on spring wheat yield in the Northern China[J]. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 2017,19(6):1551-1558.
[46] Zhang H, Tao F L, Xiao D P, et al. Contributions of climate, varieties, and agronomic management to rice yield change in the past three decades in China[J]. Frontiers of Earth Science, 2016,10(2):315-327.
[47] Mo X, Liu S, Lin Z, et al. Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2009,134(1):67-78.
[48] Zhang T, Yang X, Wang H, et al. Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis[J]. Global Change Biology, 2014,20(4):1289-1298.
[49] Xiao D P, Shen Y J, Zhang H, et al. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2016,10(3):444-454.
[50] 聂江文,杨梅,熊勤学,等.基于DSSAT模型模拟高低温灾害对荆州市中稻产量的影响及对策[J].江西农业大学学报,2017,39(2):223-229.
[51] Huang S, Lü L, Zhu J, et al. Extending growing period is limited to offsetting negative effects of climate changes on maize yield in the North China Plain[J]. Field Crops Research, 2018,215:66-73.
[52] Tao F L, Zhang Z. Climate change, high-temperature stress, rice productivity, and water use in Eastern China:A new superensemble-based probabilistic projection[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013,52(3):531-551.
[53] Xiao G, Zhang Q, Yao Y, et al. Impact of recent climatic change on the yield of winter wheat at low and high altitudes in semi-arid northwestern China[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 2008,127(1):37-42.
[54] Tao F L, Xiao D P, Zhang S, et al. Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2017,239:1-14.
[55] 戴彤,王靖,赫迪,等.1961-2010年气候变化对西南冬小麦潜在和雨养产量影响的模拟分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(3):293-305.
[56] Chen Y, Zhang Z, Wang P, et al. Identifying the impact of multi-hazards on crop yield:A case for heat stress and dry stress on winter wheat yield in northern China[J]. European Journal of Agronomy, 2016,73:55-63.
[57] Liu B, Liu L, Tian L, et al. Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China[J]. Global Change Biology, 2014,20(2):372-381.
[58] Wei T, Cherry T L, Glomr?d S, et al. Climate change impacts on crop yield:Evidence from China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2014,499:133-140.
[59] Xiao D P, Tao F L. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades[J]. European Journal of Agronomy, 2014,52:112-122.
[60] Tao F L, Zhang Z, Zhang S, et al. Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2016,16(6):1715-1723.
[61] Xiao L J, Liu L L, Asseng S, et al. Estimating spring frost and its impact on yield across winter wheat in China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2018,260:154-164.
[62] 周英霞,王全九,张继红,等.基于AquaCrop模型的气候变化对陕西省冬小麦产量影响模拟分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(6):361-368.
[63] 张亚宁,张明军,王圣杰,等.气候变化对河西走廊主要农作物的影响[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(8):1325-1335.
[64] Zhang X Y, Wang S, Sun H Y, et al. Contribution of cultivar, fertilizer and weather to yield variation of winter wheat over three decades:A case study in the North China Plain[J]. European Journal of Agronomy, 2013,50(1):52-59.
[65] 吕硕,杨晓光,赵锦,等.气候变化和品种更替对东北地区春玉米产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(18):179-190.
[66] Xiao D P, Tao F L. Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981-2009[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2016,60(7):1111-1122.
[67] 戴彤,王靖,赫迪,等.基于APSIM模型的气候变化对西南春玉米产量影响研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):155-165.
[68] Guo J P, Zhao J F, Wu D R, et al. Attribution of maize yield increase in China to climate change and technological advancement between 1980 and 2010[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2014,28(6):1168-1181.
[69] Tao F L, Zhang Z, Zhang S, et al. Historical data provide new insights into response and adaptation of maize production systems to climate change/variability in China[J]. Field Crops Research, 2016,185:1-11.
[70] Liu Z, Yang X, Hubbard K G, et al. Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China[J]. Global Change Biology, 2012,18(11):3441-3454.
[71] Chen X, Chen F, Chen Y, et al. Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change[J]. Global Change Biology, 2013,19(3):923-936.
[72] 李辉,姚凤梅,张佳华,等.东北地区玉米气候产量变化及其对气候变化的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(4):423-428.
[73] 姜丽霞,任桂林,李秀芬,等.作物生长期低温指数演变及对作物产量的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2018,46(10):79-88.
[74] 田宝星,于敏,李浩然,等.黑龙江省春季低温指数及其对作物产量的影响[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(25):103-109.
[75] 刘维,李祎君,何亮,等.基于SPI判定的东北春玉米生长季干旱对产量的影响[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(22):121-127.
[76] Zhang T, Jiang Z, Reiner W. Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China:An empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales(1981-2005)[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010,150(7):1128-1137.
[77] Yang J, Wei X, Yang X G, et al. Geographic variation of rice yield response to past climate change in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014,13(7):1586-1598.
[78] Wang P, Zhang Z, Song X, et al. Temperature variations and rice yields in China:historical contributions and future trends[J]. Climatic Change, 2014,124(4):777-789.
[79] Tao F L, Zhang Z, Shi W J, et al. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite[J]. Global Change Biology, 2013,19(10):3200-3209.
[80] Zhao Z, Liu X, Wang P, et al. The heat deficit index depicts the responses of rice yield to climate change in the northeastern three provinces of China[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2014,14(1):27-38.
[81] Liu Z, Zhang G, Yang P. Geographical variation of climate change impact on rice yield in the rice-cropping areas of Northeast China during 1980-2008[J]. Sustainability, 2016,8(7):1-12.
[82] Zhang S, Tao F L, Zhang Z. Changes in extreme temperatures and their impacts on rice yields in southern China from 1981 to 2009[J]. Field Crops Research, 2016,189:43-50.
[83] 刘胜利.气候变化对我国双季稻区水稻生产的影响与技术适应研究[D].北京:中国农业大学, 2018.
[84] Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Liu J Y, et al. Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends[J]. Climate Research, 2008,38(1):83-94.
[85] Chen C, Pang Y, Pan X, et al. Impacts of climate change on cotton yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2015,29(3):1555-1564.
[86] 宋学锋,侯琼.气候条件对马铃薯产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2003,24(2):35-38.
[87] Liu Y, Wang E, Yang X, et al. Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s[J]. Global Change Biology, 2010,16(8):2287-2299.
[88] 杜春英,宫丽娟,张志国,等.黑龙江省热量资源变化及其对作物生产的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(2):242-252.
[89] Bai H Z, Tao F L, Xiao D P, et al. Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades[J]. Climatic Change, 2016,135(3/4):539-553.
[90] Zhang Y, Feng L P, Wang J, et al. Using APSIM to explore wheat yield response to climate change in the North China Plain:the predicted adaptation of wheat cultivar types to vernalization[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science, 2013,151(6):836-848.
[91] 刘明,陶洪斌,王璞,等.播期对春玉米生长发育与产量形成的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2009,17(1):18-23.
[92] Wang J, Wang E L, Yang X G, et al. Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation[J]. Climatic Change, 2012,113(3/4):825-840.
[93] Liu Z, Hubbard K G, Lin X, et al. Negative effects of climate warming on maize yield are reversed by the changing of sowing date and cultivar selection in Northeast China[J]. Global Change Biology, 2013,19(11):3481-3492.
[94] Lü Z, Zhu Y, Liu X, et al. Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China[J]. Climatic Change, 2018,147(3):523-537.
[95] Wang X, Cai D, Grant C, et al. Factors controlling regional grain yield in China over the last 20 years[J]. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 2015,35(3):1127-1138.
[96] Sun H Y, Liu C M, Zhang X Y, et al. Effects of irrigation on water balance, yield and WUE of winter wheat in the North China Plain[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2006,85(1):211-218.
[97] 银敏华,李援农,陈朋朋,等.基于Meta-analysis的中国北方地区免耕玉米产量效应研究[J].中国农业科学,2018,51(5):843-854.
[98] 张涛,孙伟,孙步功,等.不同种植模式下旱地春玉米产量对降雨和气温变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(20):127-135.
[99] Huang S, Zeng Y, Wu J, et al. Effect of crop residue retention on rice yield in China:A meta-analysis[J]. Field Crops Research, 2013,154(3):188-194.
Similar References:

Memo

-

Last Update: 1900-01-01

Online:10154       Total Traffic Statistics:27378902

Website Copyright: Research of Soil and Water Conservation Shaanxi ICP No.11014090-10
Tel: 029-87012705 Address: Editorial Department of Research of Soil and Water Conservation, No. 26, Xinong Road, Yangling, Shaanxi Postcode: 712100