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[1]HU Jiaqiu,YANG Yunchuan,DENG Simin,et al.Analysis on Meteorological Arid-Wet Characteristics and Its Future Trend in Guangxi Based on Multi-scale SPI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(05):319-324,336.

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Analysis on Meteorological Arid-Wet Characteristics and Its Future Trend in Guangxi Based on Multi-scale SPI

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 05 Page number: 319-324,336 Column: Public date: 2018-09-06

Title:: Analysis on Meteorological Arid-Wet Characteristics and Its Future Trend in Guangxi Based on Multi-scale SPI

Author(s):: HU Jiaqiu¹, YANG Yunchuan^1,2,3, DENG Simin¹, LIAO Liping^1,2,3, YANG Xingxing¹, MO Chongxun^1,2,3, XIAO Liang^1,2,3; 1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety, Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;
3. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning 530004, China

Keywords:: coexistence of arid-wet; standardized precipitation index; multi-scale arid-wet features; drought and flood warning

CLC:: P429;P426.616

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Aiming at the frequent disasters of droughts-floods and its coexistence in Guangxi over the years, the meteorological arid-wet characteristics and its future trend were analyzed by using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and R/S method during the period from 1951 to 2015, which involved the frequency, scope of influence and intensity of regional arid-wet, based on the high temporal-spatial daily precipitation datasets of APHRODITE and TRMM 3B42V7. The results showed that:(1) the SPI of monthly scale could better reflect the sharp turn of arid-wet, while the SPI of annual or seasonal scales could better reflect its periodic features in Guangxi; (2) there were significant differences of arid-wet characteristics on the frequency, scope of influence and intensity in different temporal scales; especially, the intense arid-wet events primarily occurred in April and August, with its frequency events more than 40%, its regional or larger influence events more than 27 years and its medium or stronger intensity events more than 40 years; (3) in the near future period in Guangxi, the meteorological wet events will present weakening trend and the meteorological arid events appear strengthening trend, mainly exist in spring, autumn, April, August and October. There are no significant stronger or weaken trends in the other temporal scales or periods. In conclusion, the monthly scale has a better indicative function than the annual or seasonal scales in reflecting short-term arid-wet events and its transformation. Therefore, the drought and flood evolution of Guangxi is urgently explored on monthly scale or shorter temporal scales, which can lay the foundation for improving the ability of drought-flood warning, generating the disaster mitigation strategies and regulating the risk of disaster losses.

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