PDF Download

[1]DU Guoming,MA Jingpan,ZHANG Luyang,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Grain Potential Productivity Change Under the Background of Climate Change over the Past 50 Years in the Sanjiang Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):361-366.

Copy

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Grain Potential Productivity Change Under the Background of Climate Change over the Past 50 Years in the Sanjiang Plain

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 02 Page number: 361-366 Column: Public date: 2018-04-03

Title:: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Grain Potential Productivity Change Under the Background of Climate Change over the Past 50 Years in the Sanjiang Plain

Author(s):: DU Guoming¹, MA Jingpan¹, ZHANG Luyang², SUN Xiaobing³, ZHANG Zhiyu¹, LIU Zhao¹; 1. College of Resources and Environment, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;
2. Land Management Institute, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China;
3. College of Resources and Environment, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Keywords:: climate change; grain potential productivity; GAEZ model; spatiotemporal characteristics; Sanjiang Plain

CLC:: F323.21;F326.11;S162.5

DOI:: -

Abstract:: As an important commodity grain base in China, the Sanjiang Plain is also the significant global warming area. This study estimated the grain potential productivity in Sanjiang Plain from 1961 to 2010 by using the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model. The spatiotemporal pattern of grain potential productivity caused by climate change in recent 50 years was analyzed from several aspects, such as changes of the whole Sanjiang Plain, annual variation, and differences between counties. The study aimed to provide scientific information for crop pattern optimization and grain production capacity protection. The results indicated that:(1) the average grain potential productivity showed a growth trend during the past 50 years in the Sanjiang Plain, and the grain potential productivity increased by 140.39 kg/(hm²·10 a), with an average annual growth rate of 0.60%; the grain potential productivity was increasing, but the stability was low, the fluctuation was frequent and the magnitude was large from 1991 to 2010; (2) the spatiotemporal changes of potential grain productivity in different counties showed the great differences, which was caused by the special geographical environment of the Sanjiang Plain; the northern region of the Sanjiang Plain including Youyi County, Fujin City and other counties had the higher potential grain productivity, while southern region of the Sanjiang Plain such as Muling City and Boli County had a lower potential grain productivity; meanwhile, Jixian County, Mishan City, Hulin City had higher average annual growth rate of potential grain productivity than the other counties, and their growth rates were more than 0.70%; however, Mulin City had the lowest growth rate which was 0.24%; (3) the grain potential productivity of the Sanjiang Plain had the positive growth trend except for the negative growth trend in the western and southern parts of this region, the positive growth of each region was different, and the positive growth of some areas in the southeastern part was higher, and it was lower in the central part.

References:: [1] Food and Agriculture Organization. FAO Profile for Climate Change[R].Rome:FAO,2009.
[2] Tubiello F N, Fischer G. Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture:Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000-2080[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2007,74(7):1030-1056.
[3] 尹朝静,李谷成,高雪.气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):89-94.
[4] 封志明,孙通,杨艳昭.2003-2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):895-907.
[5] 刘玉,高秉博,潘瑜春,等.基于LMDI模型的中国粮食产量变化及作物构成分解研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1709-1720.
[6] 李月,孔祥斌,张安录,等.基于LMDI模型的我国省域粮食生产变化影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2016,21(1):129-140.
[7] 杜国明,刘彦随,于凤荣,等.耕地质量观的演变与再认识[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):243-249.
[8] 倪超,雷国平.黑龙江省粮食生产与耕地利用耦合分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):246-259.
[9] 余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究:以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(6):172-175.
[10] Zhang Y, Cai Y, Beach R H, et al. Modeling climate change impacts on the US agricultural exports[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014,13(4):666-676.
[11] 黄志英,梁彦庆,葛京凤,等.河北省作物生产潜力及人口承载力研究[J].农业现代化研究,2005,26(2):93-96.
[12] Ben Zaied Y, Zouabi O. Climate change impacts on agriculture:A panel cointegration approach and application to Tunisia[N]. Mpra Paper, 2015-6-3(64711).
[13] Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E, et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China[J]. Climatic Change, 2007,80(3):395-409.
[14] Li F, Zhang S, Xu X, et al. The response of grain potential productivity to land use change:A case study in western Jilin, China[J]. Sustainability, 2015,7(11):14729-14744.
[15] Li T S, Wu H H, Zhao H Z. Grain potential productivity of cultivated land in Baoji, Shaanxi Province, China[J]. Applied Mechanics & Materials, 2013,295/298:2631-2634.
[16] Izaurralde R C, Rosenberg N J, Brown R A, et al. Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States:Part Ⅱ. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095[J]. Agricultural & Forest Meteorology,2003,117(1):73-96.
[17] 赵媛媛,何春阳,李晓兵,等.干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):123-135.
[18] Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, et al. Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2013,171/172(3):234-248.
[19] Liu L, Xu X, Chen X. Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield in China during 1990-2010[J]. Food Security, 2015,7(1):33-43.
[20] 杜国明,张露洋,徐新良,等.近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):864-874.
[21] 毛留喜,赵俊芳,徐玲玲,等.我国"镰刀弯"地区春玉米种植的气候适宜性与调整建议[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(12):3935-3943.
[22] 栾兆擎,章光新,邓伟,等.三江平原50 a来气温及降水变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11):39-43.
[23] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ v3.0)[R]. Laxenburg:ⅡASA and Rome:FAO,2012.
[24] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[25] Razzak W. The Hodrick-Prescott technique:A smoother versus a filter:An application to New Zealand GDP[J]. Economics Letters, 1997,57(2):163-168.
[26] 杜国明,于凤荣,张树文,等.21世纪初期三江平原北部土地利用时空特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2012,54(2):72-74.
[27] 杜国明,杜蕾,杨厚翔,等.三江平原北部近55年来土地垦殖的时空格局研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):156-160.
[28] 闫敏华,邓伟,陈泮勤.三江平原气候突变分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):661-667.
[29] 邹立尧,国世友,牛宁.三江平原1960-2004年农业气候环境年代际变化[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(8):844-850.
[30] 闫敏华,陈泮勤,邓伟,等.三江平原气候变暖的进一步认识:最高和最低气温的变化[J].生态环境,2005,14(2):151-156.
[31] 王宗明,宋开山,刘殿伟,等.地形因子对三江平原土地利用/覆被变化的影响研究[J].水土保持通报,2008,28(6):10-15.

Similar References:

Memo

Last Update: 1900-01-01