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[1]AN Jingjing,YE Jinyin,LIU Gaoping,et al.Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts and Application Countermeasures in Anhui Province in Nearly 10 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(01):327-333,341.

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Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts and Application Countermeasures in Anhui Province in Nearly 10 Years

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 01 Page number: 327-333,341 Column: Public date: 2018-02-28

Title:: Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts and Application Countermeasures in Anhui Province in Nearly 10 Years

Author(s):: AN Jingjing¹, YE Jinyin¹, LIU Gaoping¹, HAO Ying^1,2; 1. Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China;
2. State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Keywords:: precipitation forecast; performance evaluation; Anhui Province; flood risk management; water resource distribution; application countermeasures

CLC:: P457.6

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The evaluation of precipitation forecasts and corresponding researches related to application countermeasures can better play the role of precipitation forecasts in flood control and drought relief. Based on the precipitation forecasts with 7 lead times (24～168 h) and the observation precipitation data in flood season during the period from 2007 to 2016, five evaluation methods (Percentage Correct, Threat Score, Probability Statistics, ROC curve, CTS ) were introduced to estimate the precipitation prediction skill and analyze the application countermeasures in flood control and drought relief. The results indicate that:(1) the forecast skill of moderate rainfall and the above intensity increased gradually in the recent 10 years; the precipitation forecast performance was improved with the shortening of lead time, however, decreased with the increase of rainfall intensity; normally, the forecast skill in the plain area in north Anhui was better than that in southern mountain area of Anhui Province and Dabie Mountain area; (2) overall, even though the rainfall predictions were well consistent with observations, the over forecast and forecast deviation of strong precipitation center still existed; in aspect of heavy rainfall processes, precipitation forecasts were of strong indication significance; according to the above results, heterogeneity and uncertainty of the spatial distribution of precipitation should be concerned in flood and drought prevention operation; (3) compared to forecasts with long lead time which had great uncertainty, forecasts with short lead time were more reliable and had better performance in heavy precipitation processes and transition weather. In practical application, the combination of precipitation forecasts with different forecast periods and the latest forecasts was strongly suggested to be utilized to adjust the flood control and drought relief operation. All statistic results proved that the usability of precipitation forecast in flood season and the research results could be valuable reference of flood risk management and water resource distribution.

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