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[1]WEI Yuan,WU Changyong,ZENG Fang,et al.Analysis and Prediction of Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Mountainous Areas[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):322-326.

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Analysis and Prediction of Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Mountainous Areas

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 23 Number of periods: 2016 06 Page number: 322-326 Column: Public date: 2016-12-28

Title:: Analysis and Prediction of Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Mountainous Areas

Author(s):: WEI Yuan, WU Changyong, ZENG Fang, WANG Honglin; School of Management Science, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China

Keywords:: land use; land resources carrying capacity; grey forecast model; Karst mountainous areas; Guizhou Province

CLC:: S181;F301.24

DOI:: -

Abstract:: By applying the land resources carrying capacity(LCC) model, carrying capacity index (LCCI) model and grey forecast model, we analyzed the dynamic changes of the land resources carrying capacity from 2003 to 2013 in Karst mountainous areas of Guizhou Province,and predicted the development trends of land resources carrying capacity between the year 2014 and year 2023. The results showed that from 2003 to 2013, the total population at the end of the year, land resource carrying capacity index, population overload rate showed the general upward trend in Guizhou Province, total grain production at the end of the year, land resource carrying capacity, grain surplus rate showed downward trend, indicating that the population carried by Guizhou Province was far lower than the actual total population, land resources carrying capacity has been overloaded, the grain surplus rate showed negative growth, food was serious shortage. The land carrying capacity index showed a trend of fluctuation upward, which revealed that the grain self-sufficiency rate was relatively low, and the contradiction between population and grain was very prominent. Gray prediction results showed that the land resources carrying capacity decreased from 2.527 42×10⁷ people in 2014 to 2023 of 2.248 73×10⁷ people, by 11.03% during 10 years; land carrying capacity index increased from 1.75 in 2014 to 2.25 in 2023, by 28.57% during 10 years, which indicated that if the current trend can not be changed, land resources carrying capacity will be severely overload in the next 10 years, the increasingly severe contradiction between people and land will impact the economic and social sustainable development. These results will provide the scientific basis for alleviating the contradiction between people and land, and achieving the regional sustainable development.

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