[1]GUO Niandong,CHEN Zhaoya,LI Hengzhe,et al.Ecological Sensitivity Research and Their Grey Forecast Based on Land Use Change in Pingshan County, Hebei Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(05):229-234.
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Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
23
Number of periods:
2016 05
Page number:
229-234
Column:
Public date:
2016-10-28
- Title:
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Ecological Sensitivity Research and Their Grey Forecast Based on Land Use Change in Pingshan County, Hebei Province
- Author(s):
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GUO Niandong1, CHEN Zhaoya1, LI Hengzhe1, GUO Wentao2, XU Hao1
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1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China;
2. Hebei Provincial Department of land and resources, Shijiazhuang 050000, China
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- Keywords:
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land use change; ecological sensitivity; grey forecast; Pingshan County
- CLC:
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F301.2;X171
- DOI:
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- Abstract:
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Pingshan County, which is the important water conservation and red tourism base, is the ecological defense of Shijiazhuang area. To promote Pingshan County construction of ecological environment, by domestic and foreign research methods, based on the analysis of the Pingshan County in 1997—2013 land use change of the intensity and the value of ecosystem services, ecological sensitivity index model is introduced and the influence of land use change on the ecological sensitivity in Pingshan County during the period from 1997 to 2013 was analyzed. The results showed that the change trend of land use intensity and ecosystem service value in the period of 1997—2013 was the same, the change showed a decreasing trend and then rising, and the sensitivity of land use change to ecosystem was strong, and the index fell from 3.23 in 2001 to 1.36 in 2013, which declined by 237.5%, from the point of view of the calculation results of the township located in Pingshan County area and the population and commercial intensive township, the ecological sensitivity index is generally higher than other regions. By predicting Pingshan County land use structure in 2017, the ecosystem sensitivity index of Pingshan County will be 1.68 in 2017, and it belongs to the low ecological sensitivity, but it increases compared with 2013, so it need to be paid more attention.