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[1]GUO Rongzhong,SHEN Haijian,YANG Minhua.Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(04):195-200.

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Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 22 Number of periods: 2015 04 Page number: 195-200 Column: Public date: 2015-08-28

Title:: Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model

Author(s):: GUO Rongzhong^1,2, SHEN Haijian³, YANG Minhua¹; 1. School of Info-Physics and Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. Changsha Environmental Protection Vocation Technical College, Changsha 410004, China;
3. Institute of Mapping of Hu’nan Province, Changsha 410004, China

Keywords:: ecological footprint; ecological carrying capacity; ecological deficit; gray model; Changsha City

CLC:: X171.4

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The ecological footprint is an important way to analyze the regional sustainable development. In the present study, the ecological footprint of Changsha City from 1996 to 2008 was calculated and analyzed by means of the ecological footprint model, while the trend of its development was predicted using the grey model. The results show that in 1996—2008, the ecological footprint of Changsha per capita increased from 1.232 6 hm² to 1.872 2 hm², the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.391 8 hm² to 0.355 0 hm², while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.840 8 hm² in 1996 to 1.517 2 hm² in 2008, indicating the growing trend. Likewise, according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2011 to 2020, the ecological deficit of the study area in 2020 will increase up to 2.736 3 hm², suggesting that Changsha will be in the state of unsustainable development. The overload of regional ecological state required local governments to take effective measures to develop the ecological civilization of the ecological economy construction, to achieve the coordinated development of resource environment and regional economy.

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