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[1]DANG Li-juan,XU Yong,WANG Zhi-qiang.Study on Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):90-97.

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Study on Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 21 Number of periods: 2014 03 Page number: 90-97 Column: Public date: 2014-06-28

Title:: Study on Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province

Author(s):: DANG Li-juan^1,2, XU Yong¹, WANG Zhi-qiang¹; 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Keywords:: carrying capacity of water resources; population size; Yulin City

CLC:: K901.3

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Being located in vulnerable ecological and soil erosion zone, Yulin City is highly lack of water resources. Moreover, the increasing energy industry causes greatly pressure on water demand and water pollution. Therefore, the deficient of water resources has limited the future expansion of population and industry. Assessing population carrying capacity of water resources is a necessary and urgent research topic for the shortage-of-water-type energy cities. Based on the prediction model of optimum population development size, by using hydrological data, also with the demographic data from 1956 to 2010, this paper analyzes and predicts the urban moderate scale under the limit of the water resources in the future in Yulin City. The results are as followings: there is exponentially growing tendency of overloaded water resources; in the scenario of 2010, the overload rate of population size is 1.02; by 2015 and 2020, the overload rates of population size will grow up to 1.04 and 1.08, respectively; the oversized population mainly comes from cities and towns, the overload rate for cities and towns of 2015 and 2020 will be 1.89 and 1.73. However, the population from rural area annually decreases. With the current population agglomeration trend, the conflict between water deficiency and population growth would be more intense in urban areas, while suburban areas could have a great potential to carry population. In view of the facts mentioned above, the population size should be controlled in a reasonable range.

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