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[1]GU Hai-min,SHI Jian-qiao,ZOU Chang-xin,et al.Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Runoff in Kaidu River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(06):135-139,144.

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Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Runoff in Kaidu River Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 20 Number of periods: 2013 06 Page number: 135-139,144 Column: Public date: 2013-12-28

Title:: Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Runoff in Kaidu River Basin

Author(s):: GU Hai-min¹, SHI Jian-qiao^1,2, ZOU Chang-xin³, BAI Shu-ying^1,3, ZHENG Xue-feng²; 1. School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Unit 61, No. 94783 of PLA, Changxing, Zhejiang 313111, China;
3. Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, Environmental Protection Department, Nanjing 210042, China

Keywords:: SWAT model; Kaidu River Basin; runoff simulation; climate change

CLC:: P333.1

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, the streamflow in the Kaidu River Basin and its response to climate change were studied. The simulated results were validated by the runoff data of the hydrologic stations from 1990 to 2000. Finally the hydrological response of runoff to climate change was analyzed under different climate change scenarios. Results showed that the SWAT model could effectively simulate the streamflow in the Kaidu River Basin. The Nash-suttcliffes coefficient, average relative error and linearity for the calibration period (1990—2000, excepted for the abnormal precipitation years of 1994 and 1995) were 0.58, -5.7% and 0.8, respectively. The results for the validation period (2000—2009) were closed to that for the calibration period, suggesting the good applicability of SWAT model in the Kaidu River Basin. 25 climate change scenarios were constructed according to the most possible climate change predictions in this basin to study the hydrological response to climate change. Results indicated that climate change showed significant influence on the streamflow. The runoff in the Kaidu River Basin would increase with the increase of precipitation or the decrease of temperature. Furthermore, precipitation showed higher influence on the variation of annual runoff in the basin than temperature.

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