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[1]YANG Fei,WU Gen-yi,ZHU Yun-qiang,et al.Forecast of Livestock and Poultry Amount and Arable Land Nitrogen Load of Chinese Provinces[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(03):289-294.

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Forecast of Livestock and Poultry Amount and Arable Land Nitrogen Load of Chinese Provinces

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 20 Number of periods: 2013 03 Page number: 289-294 Column: Public date: 2013-06-28

Title:: Forecast of Livestock and Poultry Amount and Arable Land Nitrogen Load of Chinese Provinces

Author(s):: YANG Fei¹, WU Gen-yi², ZHU Yun-qiang¹, FU Qiang¹; 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
2. College of Resources and Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China

Keywords:: livestock and poultry; total nitrogen; arable land load; forecast

CLC:: X322

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Livestock pollution has been an important part of the non-point source pollution. Overall, the livestock industry developed very quickly in China during recent decades, and it will continue growing rapidly. Therefore, the pressure of the load of livestock and poultry breeding on the arable land will continue to grow. Based on livestock and poultry data of the provinces in China from 1980 to 2009, the growth trends of livestock and poultry amount and their exerting nitrogen in 2020 was forecasted, and then the provinces arable lands load to the nitrogen exertions from the livestock and poultry was analyzed. The study results showed that the livestock and poultry forecasted by the average growth method were better than the gray model method. For most of the provinces, the amounts of livestock and poultry in 2020 will be as twice as the amount in 2009. The north China and northeast China will be the most important livestock and poultry breeding bases. The amounts of the livestock and poultry and their exerting nitrogen of He’nan, Shandong, Hebei provinces were the most. In 2020, the nitrogen load of the unit arable land area of the 11 provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong, Hebei, He’nan, Guangdong, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan will exceed 170 kg/ha, which means that the nitrogen exerted from animals will have arrived the maximum absorptive capacity of the cultivated land even not utilizing the chemical fertilizer. Moreover, in these provinces, the economic growth is fast, its population density is very high, the water network is very intensive, so the soil and water environment will be threatened seriously by the aquaculture livestock pollution. Based on the analysis above, it is recommended that China should pay much attention to environmental pollution problem caused by livestock and poultry breeding, the layout of the livestock and poultry breeding in the provinces should be optimized reasonably. It is necessary to strengthen the management of livestock and poultry industry to reduce their pollution loss. Also it is suggested that the advanced livestock pollution processing technology should be speeded up, investigated and introduced.

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