[1]LI Guo-feng,SONG Ge.Grain Production Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Baoquanling Reclamation in Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):223-227.
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Grain Production Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Baoquanling Reclamation in Heilongjiang Province
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
19
Number of periods:
2012 06
Page number:
223-227
Column:
Public date:
2012-12-20
- Title:
- Grain Production Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Baoquanling Reclamation in Heilongjiang Province
- Keywords:
- cultivated land change; food security; cultivated land pressure index; Baoquanling reclamation area
- CLC:
- F326.11
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Keeping a certain quantity of cultivated land resources is an important guarantee of achieving regional food security. The state of grain production with the model of cultivated land pressure index from the perspective of cultivated land pressure in Baoquanling reclamation was analyzed from 1989 to 2008. It also forecasted the state of food security in the years from 2011 to 2020 by using the time series, the grey method and the tools of DPS. Results showed that Baoquanling Reclamation Area has been in food security state in recent 20 years. Dynamic changes of food security in Baoquanling Reclamation Area can be divided into three stages: gradual rise of cultivated land pressure index from 1989 to 2000, decrease from 2001 to 2003 and gradual rise from 2004 to 2008. In the coming 10 years, under the condition of commodity rate of 91%, total population of the end of year, cultivated land area, grain output will rise year by year, cultivated land pressure index will decline continually and the commodity rate of food will have much more room foe improvement. At the end, the paper proposed suggestions on strengthening policy support, depending on scientific support and protecting cultivated land strictly to increase grain production ability of Baoquanling Reclamation Area.
- References:
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1900-01-01