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[1]GAO Biao,CUI Feng-wu.Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):105-110,116.

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Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 19 Number of periods: 2012 06 Page number: 105-110,116 Column: Public date: 2012-12-20

Title:: Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province

Author(s):: GAO Biao, CUI Feng-wu; Baicheng Normal College, Baicheng, Jilin 137000, China

Keywords:: ecological footprint; ecological capacity; sustainable development; ecological deficit; Jilin Province

CLC:: S181;X171

DOI:: -

Abstract:: This paper calculated ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in Jilin Province during 1996 and 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory, analyzed the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita, and obtained development prediction model of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita by using the analysis of SPSS statistical software. The results indicated the ecological footprint per capita had ascended firstly and then descended between 1996 and 1998.It increased continuously from 1.7841hm² per capita to 3.2013hm² per capita between 1998 and 2010, and ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.3710hm² per capita to 1.3028hm² per capita between 1996 and 2010. In the same period, ecological deficit had increased from 0.5601hm² per capita to 1.8985hm² per capita, indicating that the development of Jilin Province was in an unsustainable status. Ecological footprint per 10 000 RMB GDP dropped from 3.7692hm² to 1.0144hm² and had the trend of further reduction. The development prediction model showed the ecological footprint per capita in Jilin Province would increase from 3.4201hm² per capita to 6.0073hm² per capita between 2011 and 2025, ecological capacity per capita would drop from 1.3001hm² per capita to 1.2581hm² per capita and ecological deficit would increase from 2.1200hm² per capita to 4.7492hm² per capita. Jilin Province must take a series of effective measures to change the existing mode of economic development and improve scientific and technological innovation, and promote the quality of the people. Otherwise, the ecological deficit will continue to increase, the situation of sustainable development will deteriorate further.

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