[1]ZHANG Zhi-guo,LI Lin.Temporal Variation and Prediction of Multiple Cropping Index in He’nan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(04):241-243,253.
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Temporal Variation and Prediction of Multiple Cropping Index in He’nan Province
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
18
Number of periods:
2011 04
Page number:
241-243,253
Column:
Public date:
2011-08-20
- Title:
- Temporal Variation and Prediction of Multiple Cropping Index in He’nan Province
- Keywords:
- temporal variation; Mann-Kendall; grey theory; prediction; He’nan Province; multiple cropping inder
- CLC:
- S344.3
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Multiple cropping is one of the important measures of intensive land use and food security in regional agricultural production. Based on the analysis of the temporal variation of multiple cropping index in He’nan Province during 1978-2009, the paper predicts the changes of multiple cropping index during 2010-2019 using the GM (1, 1) model. The results showed that:the multiple cropping index increased gradually during 1978-2009, and the trend was more significant since 1985;the prediction results showed that in the next decade (2010-2019), the multiple cropping index will also increase in He’nan Province. Although multiple cropping could be important in agricultural development and food security, it is noteworthy that the risk of land degradation would increase.
- References:
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