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[1]GAO Zhao-ning,YAO Ling-kan.Disscussion on Evolution Feature and Prediction of Mountain Hazards[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(03):146-149.

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Disscussion on Evolution Feature and Prediction of Mountain Hazards

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 15 Number of periods: 2008 03 Page number: 146-149 Column: Public date: 2008-06-20

Title:: Disscussion on Evolution Feature and Prediction of Mountain Hazards

Author(s):: GAO Zhao-ning^1,2, YAO Ling-kan²; 1. Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, Anhui 232001, China;
2. Civil Engineering College Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China

Keywords:: sandpiles model; self-organized criticality(SOC); mountain hazards; Hurst exponent; RSH algorithm

CLC:: P642.2

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Three kinds of sandpiles with size distribution which professed fractal characters designed as the generalization models of the mountain disasters,their dynamics behavior are researched by experiment.The results showed self-organize criticality.According to the current geomorphology characteristics,the evolution characters of mountain hazards are analyzed further,all of them have the characteristics of power-law and self-organized criticality.The improved rescaled range analysis was introduced into the analysis and treatment on the precursor monitoring date of the debris flow disaster,Hurst exponent H is calculated,which could forecast the occurrence of great scale debris flow by abnormal change of value H Jiangjiagou debris flow in Yunnan as example.

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