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[1]Du Zhou,Niu Jianzhi,Fan Dengxing,et al.Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Land Use Change in the Sandy and Coarse Region of the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on PLUS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(06):309-318.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.022]

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Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Land Use Change in the Sandy and Coarse Region of the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on PLUS Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 06 Page number: 309-318 Column: Public date: 2024-12-10

Title:: Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Land Use Change in the Sandy and Coarse Region of the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on PLUS Model

Author(s):: Du Zhou¹, Niu Jianzhi^1,2,3,4, Fan Dengxing¹, Zhang Zhuopei¹, Yang Zhiyong¹; (1.School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing 100083, China; 3.Key Laboratory of State Forestry Administration on Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, Beijing 100083, China; 4.Engineering Research Center of Forestry Ecological Engineering, Ministry of Education, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Keywords:: PLUS model; land use change; multi-scenario simulation; sandy and coarse region

CLC:: F301.24

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.022

Abstract:: [Objective]The aims of this study are to analyze the pattern of land use evolution and its driving factors in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River, to explore the trend of regional land use change under different scenarios, and to provide a basis for guaranteeing regional ecological security and rational land use planning in the future. [Methods]Based on three phases of land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the characteristics and driving forces of land use change in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River were analyzed. Combined with multi-scenario setting, the PLUS model was used to predict the regional land use spatial pattern in 2030 under three different scenarios. [Results]The general trend of land use change in the study area during 2000—2020 was that cultivated land continued to decrease, forestland and grassland increased first and then decreased, water area and unused land decreased first and then increased, and construction land continued to increase. The PLUS model had a good effect on the driving force of regional land use change from 2000 to 2020, and the expansion of construction land was mainly affected by social and economic factors such as distance from county government, GDP and distance from railway. Under the natural development scenario, the area of cultivated land, forest land and grassland has decreased, while the area of water area, construction land and unused land has increased; under the economic construction scenario, construction land has increased significantly, which has a significant effect on the encroachment of other types of land; under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land has been effectively restricted, and the area is mainly transferred to grassland. The area of forestland, grassland and water area increases significantly, and the regional ecological land area increases significantly. [Conclusion]Under different development scenarios, the changes of land use pattern in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River are significantly different. The future regional land use planning can refer to the research results and formulate policies according to the specific regional development goals, so as to ensure the ecological security and sustainable development of typical ecologically fragile areas.

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Last Update: 2024-12-10