[1]Wang Dan,Lan Anjun,Fan Zemeng,et al.Scenario Modeling of Response of Land Use Change to Ecosystem Service Values in A Typical Karst Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):308-315,325.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.036]
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Scenario Modeling of Response of Land Use Change to Ecosystem Service Values in A Typical Karst Region
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
31
Number of periods:
2024 04
Page number:
308-315,325
Column:
Public date:
2024-06-30
- Title:
- Scenario Modeling of Response of Land Use Change to Ecosystem Service Values in A Typical Karst Region
- CLC:
- X171
- DOI:
- 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.036
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to simulate the change of ecosystem service value caused by land use change in karst region, to analyze the response relationship of land use change to ecosystem service value, and to provide scientific basis for regional sustainable development and ecological security protection. [Methods]Guizhou Province, a karst region with fragile ecological environment, was taken as an example. The PLUS model was used to predict land use under different scenarios based on three periods of land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and to further analyze the characteristics of the changes in ESV under multiple scenarios in terms of spatial distribution. [Results](1)Among the four preset scenarios, the cultivated land area and forestland area of the natural development scenario showed a large reduction trend, with a reduction of 101 676 hm2 and 208 481 hm2, respectively.(2)Under the four preset scenarios, the 2030 ESV followed the order:dual cropland and ecological protection scenario for the study area(48 869.4 million RMB)>ecological protection scenario(48 852.4 million RMB)>natural development scenario(48 643.5 million RMB)>cropland protection scenario(47 908.7 million RMB).(3)Under the four preset scenarios, the spatial distribution characteristics of ESV per unit area in the study area in 2020 and under multi-scenario simulation were relatively similar. However, the spatial distribution of its ESV under the natural development scenario significantly reduced in the area of high values. [Conclusion]ESV is closely related to land use change, and rational planning for future land use is the most direct reason for ensuring good ecological quality, and from the perspective of sustainable development, economic development under the scenario of arable land and ecological protection is the best mode of land use.
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Last Update:
2024-06-30